Everyone is talking about the new world order, in which the law of the strongest takes the place of the international regulatory system. This world order would be constructed by new empires that use raw power to expand their spheres of influence and overrun others, and would no longer be structured by ‘multilateral’ agreements in all kinds of areas between large and small countries. The wars that Russia, the US and Israel have waged and are waging in recent years would illustrate this – consider the wars against Ukraine, Iran and Lebanon.
But is that image correct? How much power do autocrats like Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping really have over others? Are they establishing a ‘new world order’? The answers to these questions are important for Europe, which, after eighty years of peaceful slumber, has woken up rudely to a world full of armed conflict that it does not understand and for which it is absolutely not militarily and psychologically prepared.
First of all, it must be noted that autocrats do indeed go to war eagerly, but they rarely win their wars. In any case, it has become more difficult to win a war since 1945. There have been a few resounding victories, such as Operation Desert Storm (the liberation of Kuwait in 1991), and perhaps Azerbaijan’s recent blitzkrieg to conquer Nagorno-Karabakh. But in general, wars resolve few conflicts and even create new ones. The Americans did not win in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan. The Soviet Union also bit the dust in Afghanistan. Putin thought he could conquer Ukraine with military superiority, but has barely made any territorial gains since 2022. After years of bombing Syria, he left with his tail between his legs. The British and French deposed Libyan Colonel Gaddafi, but subsequently lost control of the country. Libya is still one failed state. The French have recently wiped out one African country after another. The Bosnian war, which was frozen in 1995, could start again at any time. Israel razed Gaza to the ground, but the world has more sympathy for the Palestinians than ever. Even France, Canada and the UK now recognize the Palestinian state.
Wars also used to build something, says Badie. Now they are only destructive
In a remarkable new book, Par-delà la puissance et la guerre; la mystérieuse energiesocialthe French political scientist Bertrand Badie argues that brutal displays of power may be ubiquitous today, but that modern wars are mainly sowing death and destruction and destroying things. They no longer lead to a new ‘order’. Classical wars, no matter how brutal, often did that. The one with the largest army and the best strategy and tactics won, imposing a lasting ‘peace agreement’ on the loser. The last time this happened was in 1945. Badie writes: “In this sense, wars used to be constructive: they were destructive but also built something. Now they are only destructive.”
For two reasons: decolonization, which broke strong states and gave wings to underdogs, and globalization, which further weakened states and made them mutually dependent. The rise of non-state actors NGOs, the UN, mafia and terrorist groups and social movements such as the yellow vests further eroded the state. Weak states and strong interdependence ensure that every war causes international chain reactions, the consequences of which no one can foresee. The Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted global food and energy supplies. In the Iran War (which could reshuffle the cards in Ukraine), weak Iran is defending itself against American-Israeli military superiority by destabilizing the world economy. The social disorder this causes elsewhere may be more decisive on the battlefield than military power itself. This is a Hobbesian world.
It is good that Europe is not participating in this war, even now that Trump is once again threatening to leave NATO. Europe must now work hard on a strong defense to protect its territory and values, form coalitions with like-minded people such as Canada to uphold international law, and become more autonomous, more sovereign and therefore stronger in every area. If there is no more world order, at least we have a European order.
