I hardly dare to write it down, but there is good news, and from Yemen too. I’ll add right away that this good news is relative. But still, still, the extension of the ceasefire in the war in Yemen that started April 2 and will now be in force until August 2 can only be seen as positive. Bet not? I emailed my colleague Floris van Straaten when he wrote that the armistice that had just been agreed offered hope for the end of the war. For now, I’m losing that bet.
What’s it all about? In 2014, Shia Houthi rebels in the north of the country allied themselves with deposed President Ali Abdullah Saleh and overran the rest of the country. In March 2015, we all became acquainted with the new Saudi defense minister, Prince Mohammed bin Salman – not yet a crown prince but already, how to say, very decisive – who declared war on the Houthis on behalf of the official government of Yemen and in one breath announced a lightning-fast victory. The Saudis have a long border with Yemen, which they have always distrusted, and with the Houthis, friends with Iran, the mortal enemy had suddenly come to power, hence the war.
MbS had the support of an Arab coalition plus then-President Obama. He had to prove that, despite his upcoming nuclear deal with Iran, he also remained good with Saudi Arabia (which President Biden now also has to show). “We knew we were going to sit in a car with a drunk driver,” he said Foreign Affairs a senior US official in 2021. It has indeed been a rather disastrous accident – with approximately 400,000 deaths.
Why can a file be agreed upon and even extended after seven years? Absolute not because the warring factions have suddenly taken pity on the many millions of civilians who have been plunged into the worst humanitarian crisis in the world as a result of this war. If there was still a party with a view to a victory, it would really fight on. But the point is correct: that view is not there at the moment, with no one.
The Saudi crown prince has been pushed on the defensive by the Houthis with their missiles from Iran, and he could do better with the many billions that the war costs. His coalition friends have withdrawn one after the other. Only the US is still reluctant to join and the Emirates, in the form of support for South Yemeni separatists, but that does not help the cause of the Crown Prince and the official Yemeni government. The Houthi rebels, in turn, thought they could complete their conquests with the oil provinces of Marib and Shabwa, but got stuck there. And their arms supplier Iran is trying to tie up with Saudi Arabia.
It is certainly not a pais, let alone peace. But the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, which monitors global conflict, says Saudi airstrikes on Yemen and the Houthis’ drone and missile strikes on Saudi Arabia have ceased. That’s not to say there’s no more violence at all, and it’s all provisional and relative, and tomorrow someone may think they can win again and get to work.
But I also read that restoration work is underway in the damaged old quarter of the capital Sana’a.
What a good news.
Caroline Roelants is a Middle East expert and separates the facts from the hype here every week.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of June 27, 2022