Chinese researchers have looked into the potential dangers posed by SpaceX’s constellation of Starlink satellites in the event of a conflict. The Development Status of Starlink and Its Countermeasures was published in April in the journal Modern Defense Technology (it is now inaccessible).
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Theoretically, the document was led by Ren Yanzhen, a researcher from the Beijing Institute of Monitoring and Telecommunications, dependent on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and co-authored by several scientists from the Chinese defense industry. According to South China Morning Postwho spotted the post “ it is unclear to what extent their point of view represents an official position of the Chinese military or government “.
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In this article, the authors take stock of Starlink and its military potential. They note, ” While providing commercial services, this giant constellation holds great potential for military applications. “.
The researchers detail several collaborations with the US military. Starlink has “ connected various air and ground military equipment at high speed via Starlink satellites during live-fire exercises and is expected to take part in US hypersonic weapons detection capabilities.
Another observation is that the constellation, constantly improved, can provide reliable means of communication to combat units as well as constant surveillance of strategic locations. It could also be very useful for easily guiding drones or US aviation.
This military capability makes Chinese researchers all the more shudder as Starlink would be very difficult to destroy. As Elon Musk himself explained to Business Insider in the context of the war in Ukraine, If you’re trying to take Starlink down, it’s not easy because there are 2,000 satellites. That means a lot of anti-satellite missiles “.
If a state were to still try to destroy devices with missiles, China has already proven that it has the means, Musk believes ” that we can launch satellites faster than they can launch anti-satellite missiles “.
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The authors of the article share this observation. Destroying these small devices individually would be too costly and counterproductive because of the space debris generated.
They write, ” The Starlink constellation is a decentralized system. The confrontation is not about individual satellites, but about the whole system. This requires low cost and high efficiency measures “.
The key word of the countermeasures envisaged is surveillance. China needs to improve its surveillance system to keep an eye on all Starlink devices. A valid issue in times of peace. In December 2021 the country accused two Starlink satellites of threatening its manned space station, Tianhe. The Middle Kingdom must also be able to identify those used by the US military, by collecting data on launches, abnormal space events.
To formally decommission the constellation as a whole, no specific measures are suggested. The article simply notes that it is ” necessary to continue the development of relevant technologies and disposal capabilities, strengthen strategic planning in space, vigorously develop countermeasures, and adopt a combination of soft and hard disposal methods for some satellites in an abnormal state “.