CDU leader Merz hits a breach in the wall around AfD, and turns German politics upside down

A turning point in German politics, a historical event, the start of a new era. German media and politicians tumbles over each other to indicate the importance of the CDU motion adopted on Wednesday-one in a positive sense, the other in a negative sense. The motion, which the government calls for a stricter asylum policy, was assumed with the support of the radical-right Department. Something like that was unthinkable in German politics until this week and inevitably influences the elections in three weeks. Hundreds of people protested on Wednesday at the party office of the CDU.

Does this cost the CDU voting, from voters who reject every rapprochement to the AfD? Or do the Christian Democrats win votes from voters who tend to the AfD but now see that their views are also represented by a ‘solid’ party? In the campaign, the CDU focuses primarily on the latter group: the party presents itself as a ‘democratic alternative’ for the AfD.

Hajo Funke, political scientist at the Freie Universität Berlin (FU) and specialized in right -wing extremism, expects that the percentage of transfer to CDU will be small – the shift will be from CDU to SPD and the Greens. “It is certain that the CDU loses votes from moderate voters. That can, if the CDU continues like this, amount to a third of the votes. “

Currently, the CDU is in the lead in the polls with 30 percent of the votes, followed by the AfD by 20 percent. A decrease in the Cdukan is beneficial for the AfD: it can reduce the lead of the CDU or even make a catch -up of AfD. One possibility is that voters who have doubts between CDU and AfD feel legitimized to vote AfD – the party now gets influence in the Bundestag, and that thanks to a traditional party as a CDU.

Funke does not assume that. “The majority of the German population has a deep -rooted reluctance to return to the darkest days of our history.” The “victory mentality” of the AfD, which celebrated the adopted motion as a large triumph, can yield the party a few percentage points. But according to Funke no more than that.

The majority of the German population has a deep -rooted restraint to return to the darkest days of our history

Suspension family reunification

What potential CDU voters will do depends to a large extent on the next vote: Friday the Bundestag votes on a bill from the CDU that has to limit the “influx of foreigners” to Germany, for example by suspending family reunification and executions by make the police easier. The CDU also needs support from the AfD for this proposal.

This mood is of greater importance in a sense: it is a bill. Wednesday’s motion was a non-binding call to the government.

There is also a fierce debate within the party itself about the strategy to guide the Bundestag with support from the AfD Moties. Former Federal Chancellor and party prominent Angela Merkel condemned the decision of Merz on Thursday to have ATD play a decisive role in the Bundestag. Merkel emphasized the agreement to look for majorities with other parties so that a party would never become dependent on the AfD. The fact that Merz is now deviating from that, she calls “wrong.” Merkel’s statement is remarkable: since her resignation, she has hardly intervened in the political debate and has never been negative about her own party.

“Merz divides the party,” says Funke. According to him, the CDU has various factions: social, Christian, liberal, conservative. “They were always integrated into the party. But now Merz leaves parts behind. ”

The proposals of the CDU, which limit the right to asylum, and the support of the AfD symbolize the right -wing, more conservative course of the party since the appointment of Merz as party leader. This marks a difference with Merkel who prepared moderately and connecting in the political center. Since her departure, part of the supporters have been struggling with the new course – that part may now drop out.

Chancellor and SPD leader Olaf Scholz (L) listens to the argument of CDU party chairman Friedrich Merz during the debate in the Bundestag Wednesday.

Merz strategy

The damage can be limited, Funke says, if Merz chooses not to continue this strategy and does not win another mood in the Bundestag on Friday with support from AfD. Merkel’s criticism, other internal criticism and also a call from German churches against collaborations with radical-right can make Merz change ideas, Funke thinks.

The question is what recent developments mean for a possible coalition after the elections. If CDU becomes the largest party, it will have to work together. Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz has explicitly said that he would not form a coalition with the AfD. Other parties wonder how much that promise is still worth after Wednesday.

Harsh words

In the Netherlands there is a radical-right in the government coalition and there is also a good chance in Austria. For Germany, political scientist Funke considers that unlikely. “Despite the break that the CDU shows these days, that party will not rule with the AfD.” But apart from collaboration between CDU and ADD, the motion of Wednesday puts the relationships between CDU and possible coalition partners, such as the Greens and SPD, on sharp.

Both before and after the mood on Wednesday, harsh words went back and forth between the parties. Merz blamed government parties Groenen and SPD to force him to support AfD by not supporting his motions. Olaf Scholz, current Federal Chancellor and SPD leader, called the motion an “unforgivable error”, the youth party of the Greens called on the mother party not to form a coalition with CDU. According to the Chancellor candidate of that party, Robert Habeck, CDU has thus abolished the political middle.

“With this, Merz has indeed created more distance to the other parties,” says Funke. “That makes it more difficult to form a government: he is an unguided projectile. But I don’t expect him to continue this course. ”

To share





Mail the editors