analysis
Daniel Thioune and Albert Riera celebrate their debut as Bundesliga coaches this weekend. A lack of experience is often cited as a danger, but the numbers say otherwise.
The fact that clubs in the Bundesliga come to the realization during a season that they need to make a change in the coaching bench in order to improve the current situation is no longer anything new. It is also nothing new when the clubs rely on experience, especially in the relegation battle the same names of possible candidates come up every year.
It used to be Jörg Berger, Hans Meyer, Peter Neururer and Huub Stevens; they coined the term “firefighters”. Today it’s Friedhelm Funkel, Markus Gisdol and Bruno Labbadia. Such coaches are popular because they supposedly know what is important when the future of a club in the Bundesliga is at stake. But is the feeling that experience should be a fundamental hiring criterion justified?
Newcomers Thioune and Riera are responsible
Two first division clubs, Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt, have now decided to appoint two upper house novices as their coaches. Daniel Thioune will celebrate his debut after many years in the 2nd division (most recently Fortuna Düsseldorf). Albert Riera previously only worked abroad; the Spaniard was most recently in Slovenia with NK Celje. Riera is supposed to lead Frankfurt (plays at Union Berlin on Friday) into the European Cup, while Thioune keeps Werder (plays at SC Freiburg on Saturday) in the league.
According to consistent media reports, two coaches familiar with the Bundesliga relegation battle, Bo Svensson and Bo Henriksen, were previously favored in Bremen, but in the end it was someone who successfully fought it in the lower house. And the discussion immediately started as to whether Werder wasn’t taking too much of a risk by relying on the “inexperienced” Thioune. If you look at the numbers since 2020, you can also come to the conclusion that the decision has a greater probability of success.
Inexperienced coaches are more successful in relegation battles
Since the 2020/21 season, there have been a total of 23 coaching changes in one season at clubs fighting against relegation. Of the 14 coaches who had previously sat on the bench in the Bundesliga, only five managed to stay in the league, nine were relegated or had to leave in a relegation zone. While of the nine novices, six grabbed the rescue and only three didn’t. The success rate in the relegation battle is therefore significantly higher.
If you take all the clubs’ goals, eleven experienced coaches have achieved them since 2020 and ten have not. Among the inexperienced, only four coaches have not been able to meet the requirements, while eight have been successful. The point average among all coaching changes for those without any previous Bundesliga games is 1.32, better than that for the experienced ones who scored 1.30 points from the 2020/21 season up to and including 2024/25.
Four changes this season – with positive consequences
This season there were four clubs before Bremen and Frankfurt that had already pulled the ripcord – and in each case there were positive effects, whether experience or not. Eugen Polanski has brought Borussia Mönchengladbach out of dire relegation trouble, although the danger is far from averted as they are currently in twelfth place and have five points from the last seven games. But that also applies to Urs Fischer, who has already led Mainz 05 from 18th to 16th place.
Further up the table, Kasper Hjulmand (formerly in Mainz) has managed to get Bayer Leverkusen back on track; Erik ten Hag’s successor has scored an average of two points so far. The biggest drawbacks are probably with Daniel Bauer, who has 1.1 points per game in ten games at VfL Wolfsburg and is currently coming under criticism – he also already had Bundesliga experience.
This can be an argument for getting a trainer, but it is certainly not harmful. However, the opposite conclusion that often comes, that no experience is harmful, is wrong, at least according to the numbers. Especially when coaches have to take over a team during the season, being unprepared, having a desire for new things and being motivated to prove yourself as a novice in the Bundesliga can have at least as much effect. Or, as has been the case since 2020, even more than experience.
