Bitcoin with 50 percent correction: Tom Lee only sees one "Crypto squall" instead of winter

• Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee calls Bitcoin decline a temporary “crypto gust”
• Bitcoin fell from its all-time high of around 126,000 US dollars to temporarily below 65,000 US dollars
• Lee sees macroeconomic shocks as the cause, not fundamental weakness

“Blast instead of winter”: Lee’s classification of the decline

Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, described Bitcoin’s approximately 50 percent decline from its all-time high of around $126,000 (October 2025) to below $65,000 at times as a “crypto squall” and not a structural collapse. As Lee explained on CNBC’s “The Exchange” the week of February 17, 2026, the decline was driven primarily by macroeconomic shocks rather than any fundamental weakness in blockchain networks.

Lee pointed to the strong growth in daily Ethereum transactions, the increasing tokenization of real-world assets and Wall Street’s growing integration into the crypto market as evidence that the market continues to expand despite the price decline. Bitcoin has already fallen by around 50 percent seven times in its history, but Lee emphasized a key difference to the current cycle: it is a slow, psychologically stressful decline and not a euphoric collapse followed by a 70 percent drop. In the interview, he described the situation as a “classic bear market sentiment,” where non-euphoric highs led to slower pullbacks rather than abrupt crashes.

Tariffs, the Supreme Court and the Flight into Gold

Lee saw the immediate trigger for the market turbulence in the US Supreme Court’s decision, which declared most of President Trump’s emergency tariffs unconstitutional. The decision initially triggered a relief rally on the markets. However, Trump responded immediately by expanding alternative tariffs based on Section 122 of the Trade Act to 15 percent, triggering another risk-off rotation.

As a result, capital increasingly flowed into safe havens: gold temporarily rose to over $5,160 per ounce in mid-February 2026, and silver approached the $88 mark. Bitcoin fell below $65,000 during the same period, with the entire crypto market losing more than $100 billion in market capitalization in 24 hours. Lee explained in the CNBC interview that crypto is suffering primarily because gold has performed so strongly and investors’ appetite for risk has shifted away from speculative assets. There is also no excessive leverage in the crypto market, and traders who rely on short-term trades would have preferred precious metals.

March is the turning point month and the Bitcoin price target is up to $250,000

In an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on March 2, 2026, Lee reiterated his optimistic assessment and said he expects March to be a turnaround month for the better. He gave a year-end target of 7,700 points for the S&P 500. For Bitcoin, he confirmed his price target of $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of 2026 and predicted the cryptocurrency would move beyond its historic four-year cycle in favor of more mature price momentum.

In his opinion, AI-driven productivity gains, robust corporate profits and possible interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve would have a supporting effect if inflation falls due to tariffs and the labor market weakens. As early as January 5, 2026, Lee told CoinDesk that 2026 would be a “year of two halves” with a difficult first half and a strong rally in the second half. However, Lee’s consistently optimistic attitude is also met with skepticism: Bitcoin was most recently quoted at around 71,800 US dollars and is therefore far from six-digit price targets (as of March 15, 2026). Lee himself admitted that he was overly optimistic with his prediction of over $200,000 by the end of 2025, after Bitcoin ended the year at around $88,500.

D. Maier / editorial team finanzen.net