Bitcoin in the crisis: Does the course stay on a descent?

• The latest Bitcoin recovery only of short duration
• Course far below record high of January 2025
• Experts warn of further downward trend

The Bitcoin course is still on a downfield, although there were recently sign of recreation. After a break -in of around 25 percent compared to his record high in January 2025 (as of April 3, 2025), the insecurity of the investors remains great. Some experts now warn: the Bitcoin crash could continue despite the recent course upswing.

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Bitcoin course at a glance: crash despite relaxation?

The Bitcoin recently noted at around $ 81,900-around 25 percent below its high of around $ 109,225, which was achieved on January 20, the day of the inauguration of US President Donald Trump (as of April 3, 2025). The concerns about Trump’s customs policy had dropped Bitcoin to less than $ 80,000 on March 11th and thus at the lowest level since November 2024. Although the course after the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Fed on March 19, 2025, the course recovered by more than 5 percent to over $ 87,000, but profits were not sustainable.

Positive impulses through the Federal Reserve?

After the session of the US Federal Reserve, dealers welcomed the decision of the Fed to slow down the pace of reducing their balance sheet. Shubh Varma, managing director of the Hyblock Capital crypto research platform, said according to Marketwatch that a slowdown of quantitative tightening could lead to increased liquidity, which could benefit risky systems such as cryptocurrencies.

The first signs of a cautious relaxation were also evident in the option market. As Marketwatch reported, the so-called SKEW- the difference between the prices of put and call options- has recently shifted in favor of call options according to the crypto trade company QCP Capital. This indicates that retailers have become more optimistic after the FED session. But that alone is obviously not enough to stabilize the market sustainably.

Weak bull score index: an alarm signal?

The risk of a further drop in the course remains. Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, warned in a telephone interview with Marketwatch: “The markets still have to understand how tariffs will affect global trade and global growth, and we still have to see how tariffs affect inflation and how the interest rates will react.”

In addition, the Bull Score Index of the research company Cryptoquant continues to show weakness, as BTC Echo reports. This index measures bullish key figures from ten key indicators, including network activity, investor behavior and market liquidity. With a current value of 20, the Bull Score Index has been at the lowest level since January 2023. “If the Bull Score Index remains under the 40 period of 40 for a longer period of time, this could indicate a continuation of Bärische market conditions – similar to earlier phases of bear markets,” according to the analysts according to BTC Echo.

“Historically speaking, Bitcoin could only see sustainable course rallies when the Bull score was over 60, while continuing values ​​under 40 agreed with bear markets,” added the experts. But how the Bitcoin course will actually develop remains to be seen.

Editor finance.net

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