Israel suffers the most serious attack since the Yom Kippur War in 1973, which marks precisely fifty years. And just as it happened then, the attack caught the Israelis by surprise when they were leaving their Sukkot or Tabernacles festival in the middle of the Sabbath. There are many innocent victims among the dead, wounded and kidnapped and There are several conclusions What can be extracted from what happened.
Firstly, the military operation that the Palestinians have called Al Aqsa Flood And since it is so large, it is not prepared in two weeks but had to be cooked for a long time. AND The reputed Israeli Intelligence services have been exposed because they have not found out. Apparently cyber attacks had left them partially in the dark. But it’s not an excuse. there is here a very serious mistake which will undoubtedly have consequences.
Also The Armed Forces have been overwhelmed due to the magnitude of the attack, which has not only involved the simultaneous firing of thousands of rockets (there is talk of 5,000) that have overwhelmed and made an effective response by Israel’s defensive systems (the so-called Iron Dome), but they have also spread to the demolition of fences and land barriers with the help of bulldozers, to the use of inflatable boats for the infiltration of commandos, and even to the use of paragliders with which dozens of Hamas and Islamic Jihad militiamen have infiltrated to attack up to 22 Israeli towns, including a military base. Last night there was talk of 700 deaths, but they can be even more. The initial success of the Gazans is undeniable, regardless of what happens from now on.
Thirdly, the Palestinian operation has received different qualifications: the US (Biden), the EU (Von der Leyen) and the NATO spokesperson have described it as “terrorism.” For his part, the UN Secretary General has spoken of an “attack” and Hamas, through the leader of its military wing, responsible for the armed action, has considered it a response to “the crimes of the occupation,” ” the desacralization of the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, and the poor treatment inflicted on the 4,500 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, who will now try to exchange for the hostages and corpses captured during the invasion, as they remember that In 2011, the Israelis released a thousand detainees in exchange for the soldier Gilat Shalid who had spent five years in the power of Hamas.
Fourthly, and as a consequence of the aggression, the Israelis, divided among themselves against the most conservative and ultranationalist Government of their history as they had never been before, They will unite, putting aside their differences. to confront the common enemy that threatens its survival as a country and that has the support of its archenemy Iran, which has justified it as a response to “the Israeli occupiers.”
The attack also forces the hand of the Palestinian leadership of the West Bank, that although it has not been initially involved, it will neither be left behind nor be indifferent to the Israeli retaliation on Gaza, which will come very soon and will be very harsh.
Fifthly, what happened also shows Palestinian desperation in the face of harsh living conditions under Israeli occupation since 1967. The UN has described Gaza as an “uninhabitable” territory where 2.8 million people live in misery, 50% are unemployed, only 10% have access to drinking water, electricity depends on Israeli goodwill and 80% of its population survives thanks to international aid. Poverty and desperation due to the lack of a future fuel Palestinian radicalization. Because the question that must also be asked when this happens is why does it happen? After all, the Portuguese do not shoot missiles at the Spanish and the Swedes do not murder Norwegians.
Sixth, a very important factor in this outbreak of violence is the Palestinian perception that the Arab countries are leaving them alone. First were the Abraham Accords of Donald Trump’s era, when Bahrain, UAE, Morocco and Sudan recognized the State of Israel in exchange for gifts from Washington (in the case of Morocco it was its sovereignty over Western Sahara), without any of them moving at that time. a finger to improve the lot of the Palestinians. and now these come with even greater concern Biden’s efforts by normalize diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, leader of the majority Sunni world in Islam. Saudi Arabia’s weight in the world is much higher than that of Bahrain or Morocco. The violence of what has already happened and the harsh response that is coming from Tel Aviv will undoubtedly prevent this rapprochement in the short term – or at least postpone in time. In this sense there is no doubt that the Palestinian attack of these days is also a cry for attention and a call for help in the face of the progressive Arab forgetfulness of their cause.
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In seventh place we will have to see now How will Netanyahu’s government react? some of whose members will call for the reoccupation of the Gaza Strip, from which Israel withdrew its soldiers and settlers in 2005. Netanyahu has addressed his people to say: “We are at war and we will win it.” Nobody doubts it. The Israelis will now launch what they have called Operation Iron Swords and will win because the disparity of forces is overwhelming. The doubt refers only to the cost for each other and the impact that this reaction will have in the West Bank governed by Al Fatah and in the Hezbollah-dominated area of Lebanon, where there are symptoms of restlessness. And in the general bad conscience of the Arab world. Because we already know that there is no bad situation that cannot get worse.
We already know what will happen from now on and in a few years it will be remembered as another sad date within the traumatic relationship that exists between Palestinians and Israelis since the creation of the State of Israel in 1949. And this sad date will be followed by others until Let no satisfaction be given to those who now have nothing to lose because they have lost everything.