Belgium, more than most other industrialized countries, is vulnerable to the costs associated with an aging population. In a group of eighteen industrialized countries, only Italy is more vulnerable to this cost. This is evident from research conducted by the bank BNP Paribas Fortis, and which was discussed during the macroeconomic forecasts for 2024 that the bank presented.
As far as the bank is concerned, Belgium must urgently take “structural measures” to dampen rising costs. She points out that in a 2003 study, our country was still one of the countries with average vulnerability. Countries that scored worse at the time have all since surpassed Belgium, with the exception of Italy.
In this context, Fortis chief economist Koen De Leus is struck by the fact that the Anglo-Saxon countries are among the least vulnerable countries, “due to their lower dependence on government pensions and the less negative evolution of the dependency ratio”. The Scandinavian countries are also doing relatively well.
To assess vulnerability to aging, De Leus took five ratios into account: government revenues, the evolution of the dependency ratio (the ratio between the younger and older population and the working-age population), the total net government debt, the share of the government pension and the updated value of the additional aging expenditure for the period 2022-2050 on top of the current expenditure.
Belgium generally scores average on these ratios, but with regard to the latter, only Italy scores even worse.
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