Banque Syz has identified ten possible surprises that could significantly impact financial markets in 2025. One of these could affect the price of oil.
• Possible surprise for 2025 concerns oil prices
• Conflict between OPEC+ and USA possible
• Banque Syz assesses the probability of this occurring as high
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At the end of 2024, Banque Syz maintained an optimistic outlook on risky assets for 2025. This view is based on expectations of a robust global economy, double-digit earnings growth for S&P 500 companies and lower real interest rates in developed markets. However, despite the positive outlook, challenges and uncertainties remain that could lead to market disruption. In the context of these uncertainties, Banque Syz has identified ten potential surprises and their probability of occurrence for 2025 that will have a significant impact on the Financial markets could have.
Surprise possible: USA and OPEC+ risk oil price collapse in 2025
One of these potential surprises – which Banque Syz says is very likely to occur – concerns the oil market and geopolitical tensions between the US and OPEC+. Under US Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent, who wants to increase US oil production by three million barrels per day, OPEC+ could launch a counteroffensive in 2025. OPEC+ could also dramatically increase oil production, which could disrupt the market balance and cause the price of oil to fall to as much as $50 per barrel – a scenario that would have serious consequences for both oil-dependent countries and companies in the industry.
The OPEC+ response would be a direct consequence of US policy, which could lead to an intense market shift: the US would defend its market share while OPEC+ seeks to increase price pressure to maintain its market position.
USA conquers the oil market: Will OPEC+ strike back in 2025?
Under the Biden administration, the US has established itself as a major player in the global oil market by pursuing an energy policy strategy based on increased production and energy independence. U.S. oil production has reached record highs in recent years, primarily from shale oil production, which has allowed the U.S. to gain market share in the global oil market and reduce dependence on oil imports. However, this happened at the expense of OPEC+. Under Biden, OPEC+ had reduced production to prevent a supply surplus that could depress oil prices and hurt member states economically.
But increasing US production could force OPEC+ to adjust its strategy. If US oil production continues to rise, OPEC+ could increase production to defend market share. This would further destabilize the already fragile market balance and lead to a dramatic fall in oil prices.
Oil price under pressure: is there a risk of global economic chaos in 2025?
A drop in oil prices to $50 per barrel would have far-reaching consequences for global markets. Not only would it influence the economic forecasts of many oil-producing countries, but it would also reduce global inflation rates. Central banks would also have more leeway for theirs monetary policy. In an environment of lower energy prices, other raw material markets could also stabilize, which would have an impact on the entire global economy.
However, such a development also represents a challenge for OPEC+, as many member states rely on higher oil prices to stabilize their budgets and finance social programs. A significant drop in oil prices could lead to political tensions within the organization and increase competition for market share.
For investors, this means that oil prices could remain volatile in 2025, creating additional uncertainty for risky investments. However, it remains to be seen how the oil price will actually develop in 2025.
Editorial team finanzen.net
This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. finanzen.net GmbH excludes any claims for recourse.