Banque Syz has taken a look back at the surprises that marked 2024.
• Rally pushes Bitcoin past $100,000
• Surprising twists in the US election campaign
• Fed interest rate policy different than expected
Bitcoin breaks $100,000 mark
One of the surprises was that at the beginning of December 2024, Bitcoin broke the round mark of 100,000 US dollars for the first time in its history and reached new record levels. Banque Syz refers here to the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin (spot) ETFs in early 2024, which have attracted more than $40 billion in net inflows from their launch to the bank’s report in early December 2024, and their total assets under management almost as much has become large, like that held by gold ETFs. In addition, there is “a crypto-friendly White House” in the USA for the first time […]”as more than 300 congressmen and senators support digital assets,” writes Banque Syz, explaining that acceptance and regulation are increasing.
Surprises in the US election campaign
There was another surprise in the summer of 2024 with the withdrawal of Joe Biden as US presidential candidate, after everyone had already expected another presidential election campaign between Biden and Trump. Biden was replaced by Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for health reasons.
Also surprising was the assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump in the summer of 2024, which he survived, and the clear victory in the US presidential election in November with the strong support of the Tesla boss Elon Musk.
Fed less dovish than expected
The US Federal Reserve also surprised in 2024 by defying expectations of a significant interest rate cut and adopting a less dovish stance due to the resilience of the US economy and labor market, Banque Syz reports. The Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting amid a possible slowdown in the labor market. Further cuts of 25 basis points followed in November and December.
More surprises
Banque Syz cited the strong gold price (gold was trading at just under $2,700 at the time of the report) as further surprises, despite rising real yields and a stronger US dollar. In addition, the market value of the market-wide US index S&P 500, led by the Magnificent Seven stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla), rose by $10 trillion last year, while stock volatility was unusually quiet for the S&P 500 with realized volatility of 12.5 percent.
What no one would have expected, according to Banque Syz, is that the yield on French debt corresponded to that of Greece and the Russian ruble imploded.
Another surprise was that Argentine President Javier Milei’s economic “shock therapy” showed the first tangible results and the Argentine stock ETF 2024 performed by far the best.
Editorial team finanzen.net
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