Half -conductor titles such as Nvidia, AMD & Co. have recently had to have a strong springs. Investors now take new courage again. But an analyst warns of risks for the industry representatives in view of an upcoming deadline.
• Chip acts last weak
• US customs policy ensures uncertainty
• Analyst warns of Deadline’s bidding administration, which brings new risks
The new Trump administration’s erratic customs policy ensures turbulence on the international financial markets. Shares of the chip industry have also lost significantly in value in an unsafe market environment.
Industry problems also burden
In addition to the headwind of the economic policy side, many industry representatives have also suffered from industry -specific news that had triggered demand worries. The publication of the language model Deepseek-R1 from the Chinese startup Deepseek investors had doubts about the continued dominance and growth prospects of AI chip market leader Nvidia, which had also burdened numerous other semiconductor manufacturers.
Industry dinos like Intel also have in -house problems: After the former market leader had overslept the AI trend, the company was increasingly lost in relevance – which was also reflected on the share price.
Hope at the customs front vs. persistent uncertainty?
At least on the customs front, representatives of the semiconductor industry have recently been relaxed. On the market, the hope prevailed that US President Donald Trump would probably want to impose less far-reaching tariffs than feared. Investors had encouraged this again and let in chip acts. But even if the new trade policy under Trump leads to fewer burdens for Nvidia & Co., an expert is far from being seen all the problems that Chipriesen threatens through the US administration.
Ben Reitzes, analyst at Melius Research, said in a customer notification, quoted from the “Marketwatch”, the biggest question that is currently hovering over many semiconductor shares is how Trump will handle the export restrictions for AI chips imposed in the last weeks of the bid administration. “The biggest threat in the chip area is the assumption that Trump’s cumbersome ‘AI diffusion rules’ could be retained completely or largely. These rules lead to additional control levels, bureaucracy and restrictions on the sale of AI chips-even to our friends,” said the market expert. He believes that Trump retained the strict approach decided under the previous government, which in particular was a thorn in the side of the market leader Nvidia, he noticed. “The actual question is whether the Trump team can think of something better to restrict China’s access to AI computers,” said Reits, who emphasized that regulations would come into force in mid-May, provided the Trump government does not reach. “However, it would not surprise us if the government continued to act hard against China’s capacities worldwide. The uncertainty helps the semiconductor manufacturers, especially Nvidia.”
Companies in the industry are loud
While the deadline is getting closer to the entry into force of bidding regulations, the concern among chip companies is getting bigger. The plans stipulate that countries are divided into three export categories: important allies are not subject to any restrictions, the middle level receives limited access and countries such as China and Russia are confronted with almost complete prohibitions. Some data centers in countries such as Malaysia and India strive to comply with the US security standards, but capacity restrictions remain.
As Bloomberg reports, several technology companies and foreign heads of state and government have now asked the Trump government to rethink the restrictions for US half-ledge exports. In addition to Nvidia, Microsoft, as a loud opponent of the plans, had also positioned itself, Microsoft Vice-President Brad Smith said that the guideline would restrict access to essential AI components in important global markets.
Broadcom and Marvell not affected?
According to Ben Reits, companies such as Broadcom or Marvell Technology are not seriously affected by the restrictions. “Broadcoms chips for [die TikTok-Muttergesellschaft] Bytedance are below the threshold values, and its other important AI customers are located in the USA, “emphasizes the analyst.
As for AMD, Reits says, the situation for his AI accelerator chip-family looks better after Oracle recently gave up a large order at AMD. “Oracle’s order could be the beginning of an in-depth business relationship until the MI400 launch in 2026,” he said, referring to a future generation of AMD accelerators.
This looks different with Nvidia & Co. Against the background of the expiring deadline and the associated uncertainty about possible consequences for the shops of semiconductor companies, investors should therefore keep an eye on the current developments.
Editor finance.net
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