There has been hardly any rain in the Netherlands for weeks, which means full terraces, with radiant weather during the May holidays and on King’s Day. But it also means a risk of forest fire and threatening measures, such as groundwater extraction bans. After a dry 2025 and a relatively mild and dry winter, the soil is longing for rainwater. It has also been warm, with April 9, for example, a heat record for that date. This has also resulted in rapid evaporation, which further increases the precipitation deficit.
1. How dry is it?
April is on average the driest month of the year, but this April is exceptional with only a few millimeters of precipitation. Precipitation shortage occurs when more water evaporates than precipitates. This is always the case in the six months from April 1, but the extent to which this is happening now due to the lack of precipitation is extreme. The precipitation deficit in the Netherlands is currently 62 millimeters, which means that April 2026 will keep pace with the driest April months in history. According to the ‘driest’ forecasts, the deficit could exceed 100 millimeters in the next fifteen days, which in a typical year is only reached in high summer. The year with the largest precipitation deficit was 1976, when this increased to 370 millimeters in August.
Research by the KNMI shows that in the period 1994-2023 there was a potential precipitation deficit before April 1 more often than in the period 1965-1993. “With higher evaporation earlier in the year, the risk of spring drought also shifts and the precipitation deficit may increase further,” the Freshwater and Drought Expertise Network stated in a report. The KNMI now also monitors the rainfall deficit all year round.
2. How serious is drought this early in the year?
That of course depends on how this develops in the coming months. According to climate scientist Karin van der Wiel of the KNMI, soil moisture has been replenished with a few heavy showers, which at first glance appears to restore the top layer of the soil. At the same time, the deeper groundwater in almost all places in the Netherlands, and especially in high sandy areas (the Veluwe, parts of North Brabant, the Achterhoek) has not yet recovered from last year’s dry summer. The year 2025 was the driest year since 2018.
On the Drought Portal, an overview website of various parties involved in the Dutch water system, including the Union of Water Boards, groundwater level measurements turn yellow to orange everywhere in the Netherlands, which indicates dry to very dry conditions. Added up, this can have all kinds of consequences for agriculture, with farmers having to pump up water from deeper layers to irrigate their fields. Salinization is also increasing in coastal areas.
3. Does such a dry spring month mean anything for the rest of the year?
A dried out surface leads to extra heat, as moisture absorbs heat. “Compare it with the beach, where you immediately feel the heat when the sand is dry and loose,” says Van der Wiel. According to Van der Wiel, such an interaction does not yet exist in the Netherlands, as the soil here has not dried out.
However, there is simply a greater chance of a dry summer as a result of climate change. Another consequence of this is the increased frequency of extreme rain: very large amounts in a short time. The soil actually benefits from even precipitation, because with excessive amounts of precipitation the water flows away directly via the surface water.
4. To what extent is this the new normal?
The KNMI uses various scenarios with regard to climate change and drought. In the most serious scenario, an 80 percent higher average precipitation deficit is expected at the end of this century, says Van der Wiel. That would make the drought year of 2018, with a rainfall deficit of 300 millimeters, the norm. The scenario in which the target of the 2015 Paris Agreement is achieved – a maximum of 1.5 degrees of global warming – entails a precipitation deficit increase of 13 percent. The intermediate scenario describes a precipitation deficit that is approximately 25 percent higher at the end of this century.
“That is also substantial,” says Van der Wiel. “We in the Netherlands have to get used to the fact that we are a water shortage country in the summer. Because at the same time we are also fighting against the water, the flood risk has not gone away.” In 2021, the enormous rainfall peak in the Ardennes, North Rhine-Westphalia and South Limburg led to deaths in Germany and Belgium and major flooding in Valkenburg.
5. What effects of the April drought are already noticeable?
For years, farmers have had to respond to the drier conditions that affect crop cultivation. They must pump up deeper groundwater and surface water. There are currently no extraction bans in place as a result of the drought in April, the Union of Water Boards said.
Such measures are being considered, mainly in the south and southwest of the country, a spokesperson says. “But it will only be clearer about this at the beginning of next week and this also depends on the situation after this weekend.” It may rain on Saturday and Sunday.
The De Dommel water board in Southeast Brabant, which is usually most dependent on local precipitation due to the lack of river water supply, decided on April 1 to allow the irrigation of grassland, sports fields and golf courses as usual after just enough rain had fallen in March. As always, there will be a withdrawal ban in large parts of vulnerable areas in this Brabant water board from April 1.
The drought also makes nature more susceptible to fires than in other years. The fire brigade has now been deployed to Oirschot in North Brabant for several days in a row to extinguish heathland and forest fires. A spokesperson told Omroep Brabant that the fire brigade is assuming arson.
