The PP is playing to govern with Vox and the left to mobilize their voters in what can cease to be the great fiefdom of the PSOE in Spain
Before the end of April, the President of the Andalusian Government, Juan Manuel Morenoafter weeks of indecision, opted to anticipate about five months the Andalusian elections to be held on Sunday, June 19. At the close of the electoral campaign there are many unknowns that the polls must resolve, although the exit of PP of the government in Andalusia is, in light of all the polls, unlikely. The wind blows tail for the popular.
Polls have reiterated that the PP is the favorite and could even achieve a historical milestone with a sufficient majority to govern alone, which would mean a second term for Moreno as president, but also a political change in society Andalusian. The PSOE won the last elections of 2018 and the PP governed with the worst result in its history after a pact with Cs and Vox.
Now Vox is fighting to gain the key to the Government and reach a vice presidency, as it did in Castilla y León. Cs is risking his survival and saving himself from disappearance with a result that allows him to remain in Parliament and even reissue the coalition on the Board.
The PSOE appeals to the “red pride & rdquor; and fight tooth and nail to reverse the sentence of the polls, which lead what was the hegemonic party among Andalusians to electoral disaster, even with a setback compared to the worst results in its history, harvested by Susana Díaz in 2018. Losing the million votes would have serious consequences in one of its great forts and would bill Pedro Sanchez thinking of the general In addition, if the PP achieves a solid victory, the idea of changing the political cycle would be strengthened and the ‘Feijóo effect’ would be triggered that they attribute to the renewal of the leadership in the PP and its new president, Alberto Núñez Feijóo. The political earthquake could even have consequences and trigger a government crisis as a shock.
The left is also playing a lot in elections that could not have started on the worse foot. The division to the left side of the PSOE marked the campaign in its beginnings and only the figure of Vice President Yolanda Díaz has achieved massive rallies in the last week. There are two ballots on the Andalusian left beyond the socialist, that of Teresa Rodríguez with Adelante Andalucía and that of Por Andalucía, which integrates Podemos, IU, Más País, Equo, Alianza Verde and the Andalusian People’s Initiative. An electoral confluence that opens the way for Díaz’s ‘Sumar’ national political project in Spain, with the enormous difficulty of having Podemos resisting giving up power and refusing to assume a role as a subordinate party.
Flat campaign ‘in crescendo’
The electoral campaign began very flat and was gaining in tension. In the first days, the succession of fairs, pilgrimages and patron saint festivities marked the photos of the candidates and also the disconnection of the Andalusians, who did not show signs of greater interest for elections that did not even have street scenery, with very few banners or posters on public roads. The electoral debates on TVE and Canal Sur on the first and second day of the campaign changed that trend. A heat wave with temperatures above 40 degrees marked the second week and although the thermometers speak of a truce, there is fear that this Sunday, Corpus Christi in some provinces, Andalusians will choose to go to the beach and not vote.
Participation is another unknown. The left has accused Moreno of seeking that demobilization, but now he is even tense to a PP that opted for a low profile, fearing that his voters will relax due to the succession of favorable polls. Voting by mail has shot up 96%a fact that suggests that many citizens (162,000) wanted to vote but would not be in their place of residence.
Moreno (PP) has carried out a campaign with a presidential tone, friendly, without losing his smile or good tone and without answering the big question: would a government agree with Vox? Would you give the vice presidency to Macarena Olona? The leader of the PP has avoided all the ideological battles and all the stakes of Vox. With a ‘brand Juanma’ campaign, with the initials of the PP almost disappeared and subject to his profile as president, he has defended a de-ideologized management and for all Andalusians, with many more Andalusian flags than those of Spain or the party at all rallies . He has been the key to the PP campaign, which fights for write a historical moment and achieve the great political turnaround which he did not get in the previous elections. Moreno does not want his voters to relax, but in his ranks they see the “mythical number” of 55 deputies, an absolute majority, next. It would be an unprecedented change in a community of socialist hegemony.
The PP has wagered most of its campaign on expanding its electoral base to the center left, asking for the vote of socialist voters in previous elections. That is the key to these elections, it remains to be seen if Moreno really manages to turn the PP into the majority party and middle classes In Andalucia. The national leader has carried out his own campaign in Andalusia, with acts outside of Moreno, but very respectful of the candidate.
Olona’s doubt
Faced with this commitment, Vox has carried out a tough, aggressive campaign, in which Macarena Olona has not convinced as the “electoral cannon & rdquor; that his people said it would be, drawing on clichés and folklore to make up for his origins in Alicante. The mess of registering her, allegedly fraudulent, in Salobreña (Granada) and the failed role of the candidate in the first debate made Vox first remove Olona from the focus for several days and then change strategy, further emphasizing ideological themes. Vox started with great expectations, of up to 26 deputies, and ends with forecasts that place the extreme right below 20.
His message regarding the PP is clear: they will not give a single vote for free. They demand to enter the Government of Andalusia, whatever the electoral arithmetic. Moreno will have a very difficult time forming a government if he is not very close to the absolute majority, the left has already flatly ruled out an abstention to avoid Vox on the Board. The PP trusts Cs, who has carried out an uninhibited campaign in which Juan Marín, accompanied by Inés Arrimadas, has taken advantage with humor and a good role in the two electoral debates. If they manage to be in Parliament with two or three deputies, they would be essential to add the 55.
The socialist candidate, Juan Espadashas done more kilometers than anyone in an intense campaign, with the motto “If we vote, we win”, but which the polls predict will not serve to stop a catastrophe. The PSOE hopes to cause a surprise and that the hidden vote shows that they are not going to fall out of the 33 current deputies. Espadas was a candidate appointed by Ferraz and has had the support of Pedro Sánchez and the ministers in his campaign to sell the management and social policies of the Government in the face of the inaction of which Moreno is accused in the Board and with a warning : Voting for the PP means putting Vox on the Board. The socialists have appealed to the red pride, have defended the 37 years of PSOE in Andalusia with messages such as “everything good & rdquor; that there is in the community is due to this party and has even made a threat of beginning to reconcile with a difficult past due to the case of the ERE.
Diaz’s premiere
For Andalusia he had a very difficult start. The fight so hard Can versus UI Y More Country by the headliner, the starting positions of the candidates and the economic resources caused a political agreement outside the legal deadline. The fight was in Andalusia, but it was decided in Madrid, where Podemos fights not to be swallowed up without further ado by the political project that Yolanda Díaz has announced will begin on July 8, Sumar, and with which she has already run as a candidate in some generals “to win Spain & rdquor ;. The Vice President and Minister of Labor, who began by erasing herself from the Andalusian campaign, rectified the requests for help from the IU and the PCE and has shown that she has a lot of pull by supporting the candidate Inmaculada Nieto.
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It fills the rallies, although it is not known if that will prevent the disaster at the polls that the polls indicate due to the fragmentation of this space and the confusion of the voters between fights and different acronyms. Andalusia will be the starting point for this new project of the left in Spain and although it is not consolidated in the polls, all the actors already admit that the political confluence and the leadership of Díaz is irreversible.
From Forward Andalusia, Teresa Rodríguez has carried out a very personal and effective campaign, defending that they are the only formation without tutelage from Madrid and with Andalusian obedience, claiming the Andalusian accent and without shying away from the melee with the Vox candidate, Macarena Olona, from the first moment, convinced that it was an obligation to “unmask & rdquor; to an extreme right that he has accused of “disguising himself & rdquor; to “cheat & rdquor; to the workers and the people of the countryside in Andalusia. With few resources, it has undoubtedly been one of the most effective campaigns in terms of media impact and social networks.