NEW YORK (dpa-AFX) – The US bank JPMorgan currently sees great opportunities and comparatively low risks for the shares of the antibody specialist MorphoSys. The phase III study results of the Swiss partner Roche for the drug candidate gantenerumab against Alzheimer’s are imminent and he has confidence in a success, wrote analyst James Gordon in a study available on Monday.
If he is right, the data should prove to be a strong price driver for Morphosys, according to Gordon. He therefore gave the shares of the SDAX company “Positive Catalyst Watch” status until December 1st.
The pharmaceutical company Roche will announce the study data on gantenerumab at the end of November at the relevant specialist conference Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease (CTAD) in San Francisco. However, the expert expects the most important findings to be published in advance by the end of October. He sees a great chance that the data will show a sufficiently strong efficacy to submit an application for approval in the USA.
For Morphosys shares, the JPMorgan analyst sees an opportunity for an increase of more than 20 percent in terms of net present value (NPV) through the mean, “even if gantenerumab only brings in peak sales of around $3 billion.” The shares could even more than double if the drug turns into a $10 billion product. At the same time, in view of the low expectations, Gordon sees hardly any risk of setbacks in the event of a complete failure of gantenerumab and thus an attractive short-term opportunity-risk ratio.
Because according to Gordon, the price of Morphosys shares currently only priced in a less than 20 percent chance of gantenerumab being a complete success in both studies (peak sales 10 billion US dollars), i.e. less than about 9 euros per share. In the best case, however, the participation in Roche’s sales would be worth around 45 euros per Morphosys share.
Nevertheless, Gordon is sticking to his price target of EUR 32.50 and a “neutral” rating for Morphosys for a period of six to twelve months. In doing so, he refers to the risks that still exist for the market expectations for the antibody Monjuvi (tafasitamab) in the current year. In addition, the path to profitability will be challenging if the key product in the pipeline, pelabresib, fails to deliver positive phase III data in 2024.
Based on the “Neutral” rating, JPMorgan expects the stock to perform in line with the relevant sector over the next six to 12 months./ck/ag/mis
Analyzing Institute JPMorgan.
Publication of the original study: 10/17/2022 / 01:50 / BST
First distribution of the original study: 17.10.2022 / 01:50 / BST
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