Alphabet shares with a strong comeback in 2025: This is how experts assess the chances for 2026

• Alphabet stock 2025 biggest gainer among the Magnificent 7
• AI offensive drives growth
• This could continue in 2026

After a turbulent start to the year, Alphabet shares have staged an impressive comeback in 2025. With a share price increase of around 65 percent, the Google Group was one of the biggest winners among the tech giants, according to market observers. From the perspective of many analysts, the crucial question now arises: Can Alphabet continue this momentum in 2026?

Strong comeback for Alphabet shares thanks to AI focus

Alphabet shares hit their annual low in April 2025 as concerns about new US tariffs and increasing competition in the AI ​​sector weighed on shares. Since then, however, the price has more than doubled. Among the Magnificent 7, Alphabet shares were by far the biggest winner in 2025.

A central driver of this development was the strategic realignment in the area of ​​artificial intelligence. Google relied heavily on its Gemini models. In August 2025, the “Nano Banana” image function in particular attracted attention: According to CNBC, the Gemini app quickly exceeded the five billion generated image mark and temporarily pushed ChatGPT out of first place in the Apple App Store.

Alphabet also invested heavily in personnel. In the summer, the company brought Varun Mohan, co-founder and CEO of the AI ​​startup Windsurf, as well as other top talent into the company. According to reports, Google paid $2.4 billion in royalties and compensation.

Gemini vs. ChatGPT: catching up in the AI ​​market

Despite the progress, Gemini still lags ChatGPT in usage. But the gap is shrinking quickly. According to Similarweb data from December 2025, ChatGPT’s share of generative AI traffic fell from 87 to around 68 percent within a year, while Gemini increased from around 5 to around 18 percent over the same period.

Analysts see this as a positive signal for the core business. Citizens analysts emphasized, according to CNBC, that the key development is not just Gemini itself, but its impact on search. The “incorporation of updated models improves the relevance of answers, which we see as a further tailwind for engagement,” it says. They also stated: “We emerge with the belief that Google can further accelerate search revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025.”

High expectations and increasing investments

The look ahead to 2026 is characterized by high expectations. According to CNBC, citing data from LSEG, analysts expect revenue growth of 15 percent to over $111 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025. Low double-digit growth is also expected for 2026. At the same time, investments are increasing significantly. Alphabet increased its 2025 capital expenditure forecast to up to $93 billion, the company said. Some analysts even expect more than $114 billion for 2026.

Despite possible risks, many experts remain optimistic. Analysts at Pivotal Research warned, according to CNBC, that issues surrounding OpenAI are “likely to temporarily get pretty ugly for AI stocks and the market as a whole.” At the same time, they see Alphabet as well positioned in the long term. Their conclusion: “We believe that the shakeout, if it occurs, will be similar to the year 2000 and will inevitably be a healthy selection process that leaves behind fewer but much more dominant competitors, with Google at the top.” As is often the case, it remains to be seen whether the analysts are right.

Bettina Schneider / editorial team finanzen.net

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