Alcaraz-Zverev prediction, Atp Madrid: Carlos handicap -4.5 to 1.90

Budget to be updated: 25-2. This is the ratio between victories and defeats in 2023 for Carlos Alcaraz, who only lost against Cameron Norrie in Rio de Janeiro and Jannik Sinner in Miami. The number 2 in the world, after winning the Barcelona tournament, continues his run: he is in the round of 16 in Madrid, a tournament he won last year against Sascha Zverev. The two meet again in the Spanish capital, with the quarter-finals up for grabs against one between Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov.

The prediction

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Alcaraz comes from the victory in straight sets against Grigor Dimitrov, 6-2 7-5. But he didn’t go smoothly in the tournament: the first match he played, against Emil Ruusuvuori, was tough. The Spaniard got away with it in three sets, in a comeback, after having had a bad time in the second: 2-6 6-4 6-2 in terms of score. Zverev also risked his debut in the tournament: 6-7 7-5 6-0 against Carballes Baena, before dominating against Hugo Grenier (6-1 6-0). The German is working hard to get back to his standards after the very bad injury at Roland Garros last year. In the round of 16 in Montecarlo he had given Daniil Medvedev a hard time, losing in the tie break of the third set after winning the first set. But if the Russian is vulnerable on clay, Alcaraz looks at the moment of another level. Attention therefore to the victory of the Spaniard with handicap -4.5: the odds are 1.90 for LeoVegas, 1.88 for Better and GoldBet.

The shares of Alcaraz-Zverev

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It goes without saying that all the main betting sites bet on Alcaraz’s victory: the Spaniard’s success is given at 1.22 by Pokerstars, 1.20 by NetBet and Sisal. While the odds for Zverev’s victory are 4.60 for LeoVegas, 4.55 for PlanetWin, 4.50 for Bet365. We have already mentioned the match in the final last year, dominated by Carlos: 6-3 6-1. However, the German is ahead in the previous meetings, having won the other three matches against the Spaniard: in 2021 in Acapulco (6-3 6-1) and Vienna (6-3 6-3), last year at Roland Garros (6 -4 6-4 4-6 7-6).