Evercore’s strategists expect noticeably higher market volatility in 2026 – especially in the technology sector. Nevertheless, the basic tone remains positive.
• 2026: Higher market volatility ahead?
• Evercore fundamental outlook remains positive
• AI stocks set for further rise, according to experts
Higher market volatility expected
Julian Emanuel, strategist at Evercore ISI, expects noticeably higher volatility on the stock markets in 2026, as MarketWatch reports. He sees the first signs of potential risks particularly in the technology sector – for example through the increasing “circular economy of AI”, i.e. the growing mutual investments between large tech companies and emerging AI companies such as OpenAI or Anthropic. Such structures were reminiscent of previous overheating phases such as the Japanese keiretsu networks or the dot-com bubble.
Emanuel cites rising shareholdings in large tech companies (over ten percent), a deterioration in the balance sheets of hyperscalers – for example through higher debt or declining free cash flow – and a falling interest coverage ratio as possible warning signals that investors should pay more attention to in the future. However, the fundamentals of the industry are currently stable, which is why Evercore does not currently recognize any systemic risks. Investors should therefore take short-term setbacks into account after recent record highs. Strategically, Evercore remains overweight in AI-related IT, communications and consumer stocks.
Positive basic outlook
However, despite the risk warnings, Emanuel’s overall forecast remains optimistic. He puts the risk of a speculative bubble at around 30 percent. He also expects the S&P 500 to rise to around 7,750 points by the end of 2026, according to Investing.com.
Emanuel does not currently see the above-mentioned typical prerequisites for a bubble to form in the AI sector – excessive debt financing, high mutual investments and strained credit markets. The big technology companies had solid balance sheets, low debt and high cash flow. In addition, the credit default swap indices, which are considered early indicators of systemic risks, remained well below critical thresholds. Evercore emphasizes that only participation rates of more than ten percent – similar to the dot-com era – would represent a serious warning signal.
AI stocks at a glance
The outlook for some of the biggest players in the AI race also remains positive.
According to TipRanks, 39 of 41 Wall Street analysts currently give NVIDIA shares a buy recommendation. Alphabet and Microsoft also currently receive a “Buy” rating from 27 and 32 experts respectively – and therefore the overwhelming majority. For Oracle, 24 “Buy” and 8 “Hold” ratings result in a moderate buy recommendation out of 32 ratings (as of January 21, 2026).
Editorial team finanzen.net
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