After the DAX reached a record high shortly before the end of the 2023 stock market year, the new year could start as quietly as the old one ended.
Experience has shown that many market players will only return to trading venues in the second or third week of January. An option for the German leading index to hover below the historic high of a good 17,000 points at the start of 2024 would be.
With a gain of around 20 percent, 2023 was the second best year for the DAX 40 in the past ten years. “As soon as everyone returns from their vacation in the new year, there will be a reality check for the year-end rallies on the stock and bond markets,” wrote analyst Thomas Altmann from QC Partners. Then it will have to be seen how much risk the stock market investors are taking at the start of the year and whether they are prepared to invest larger sums at the current price levels.
Stock prices in November and December were driven primarily by the scenario of key interest rates falling again, especially in the USA. That’s why investors should take a look at the minutes of the most recent meeting of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday evening. At the meeting in mid-December, the Fed promised interest rate cuts next year. Many observers are already expecting one at the Fed meeting in March Interest rate cut. The markets will therefore be closely scrutinizing the wording of the protocol for clues about the future monetary policy analyze.
With a view to the German stock market, it will be interesting to see whether the favorites of the old year continue to enjoy the favor of investors in the new year or whether they change horses.
The biggest price winners in the DAX in 2023 were Rheinmetall, Heidelberg Materials, adidas, SAP SE and Covestro. The latter was driven primarily by takeover hopes given the interest of the Arab oil company Adnoc. This faces the losers Zalando, Siemens Energy and Bayer.
Most major stock exchanges are closed on New Year’s Day.
FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX)