After its strong rally since the beginning of the year, the gold price has recently slowed down. Despite the setback, Saxo Bank sees the precious metal hitting new records as early as the beginning of 2026.
• Saxo Bank sees the 2025 peak reached for the time being, but expects new strength from the beginning of 2026
• According to market observers, central banks and ETFs remain important pillars of demand
• US investment banks believe gold will reach new record highs in the medium term
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Calmer tones after record hunt
After an unprecedented upward move, the gold market appears to be entering a phase of consolidation for now. According to Ole Hansen, head of raw materials strategy at Saxo Bank, investor sentiment has changed noticeably recently.
“The tone went from euphoria to thoughtfulness,” Hansen told Kitco News. Many investors would now ask themselves how strongly expected developments such as interest rate cuts, geopolitical hedging and central bank purchases have already been priced in.
The price for a troy ounce of gold is currently 4,163.17 US dollars, slightly below the record high of over 4,300 US dollars at the beginning of October (as of November 13, 2025). However, according to Hansen, this is not a trend reversal but a healthy correction. “The recent slowdown is a sign of pressure relief, not weakness,” the strategist said. Technically, Saxo Bank sees solid support between $3,834 and $3,878.
Consolidation instead of trend reversal
From the perspective of other market observers, the current phase is likely to only be temporary. According to the World Gold Council, structural demand remains strong. The precious metal has already set numerous all-time highs this year and only broke through and exceeded the $4,000 mark at the beginning of October. The latest correction after the steep rise is therefore hardly surprising.
Analysts emphasize that tactical factors such as profit-taking or technical indicators could cause short-term volatility. Nevertheless, the fundamental environment remains intact. According to the World Gold Council, a broader investor base, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and a gradual move away from the US dollar continued to provide a solid basis.
Banks see further potential until 2028
While Saxo Bank expects a sideways movement in the short term, large US investment houses are extremely optimistic in the long term. Despite the recent setback, JPMorgan Chase even believes that the price of gold can double in the next three years. What is crucial is that institutional investors are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic hedge against equity risks rather than against inflation.
The major bank’s analysts expect prices of up to $6,000 per ounce by 2028. Morgan Stanley shares this positive outlook and expects a gold price of around $4,400 by mid-2026. Both institutes point to falling interest rates, ongoing central bank purchases and strong ETF inflows as key price drivers.
Next upswing at the beginning of 2026?
For the coming months, Saxo Bank expects the price of gold to initially trend sideways at a high level. Hansen draws parallels to previous market phases: After reaching a record high of $3,500 in May, gold also stabilized for four months before a strong price surge followed. A similar trend could emerge this time too.
As soon as the current consolidation is over, according to Hansen, the same forces that drove the market in 2025 are likely to come into play again: rising national debt, concerns about inflation and, above all, continued demand from central banks. This means that the next upward trend could begin as early as the beginning of 2026 – and take gold to the next record level.
Editorial team finanzen.net
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