It is raining at Papendal, the top sports center on the outskirts of Arnhem where the Dutch sports elite prepare for the (inter)national competition. The sports fields are deserted. The walk from the bus stop takes you past a battery of sports halls to the Arnhem Hall, the domain of the Nevobo volleyball association. Sports scientist Aylin Post (33), talent development specialist at that association, receives her visit in an office right next to an enormous volleyball hall, nursery of new Ron Zwervers and Peter Blangés, heroes from a bygone era.
Post comes from a sporting family, one of her sisters became national youth champion in swimming. She herself did intensive gymnastics until she was 18, nine hours a week. “I was not a top talent, I lacked explosiveness,” she says. “My parents always took us to matches and training. We called it ‘Taxi Company Post’.”
At the end of last year, Post won the Boymans Prize for her dissertation Demystifying swimming talentafter which she obtained her PhD from the University of Groningen in October 2024. For her PhD research, she spent five years at Eindhoven’s top swimming pool, Tongelreep, to find out what makes a young swimming talent a great swimmer.
What did you investigate in the Tongelreep?
“We mainly looked at the differences in development between swimmers who swim at top global level and the best 50 swimmers at national level. On a technical, tactical, physical and mental level. Swimming times of course, but also things like body length, jump height, top swimming speed and swimming efficiency. And pacing behavior, how they organize their race.”
What distinguished the world leaders from the slightly lesser gods?
“There is not one specific point at which a top swimmer rises above the rest. They distinguish themselves in a whole range of physical, mental, technical and tactical qualities, also over time. For example, girls reach top level earlier than boys, they generally also enter the growth spurt earlier.
“I did find one general distinction: the top performers from my research did more self-regulation. They were more involved in their own development, thought more about their strengths and weaknesses, and evaluated their goals more often. They also scored slightly lower on effort. They do not go full throttle with every exercise, and are good at separating main and secondary issues. For example, slightly less energy in twisting and turning, because that is okay. But it is all out in the sprints, because he or she can make the most progress there.”
What is the role of natural talent on the road to the top?
“Aptitude is a good start. Much more important is motivation, how much are you willing to do for it. Mental skills are very important in top sport. That is about being able to adapt yourself, performing under pressure, perseverance and good communication. The environment is also crucial: which trainers do you have, what kind of training facilities, and are your parents there for you?”
What percentage of talents ultimately makes it to the top?
“It differs per sport and also per age, from what age do you start counting? In swimming and volleyball, approximately one in five talents at the age of about 16 breaks through. It is a race to lose out. In the beginning everyone is on course. But over time you see that the progression of some people stagnates. Especially after puberty, talents disappear. Further development is extremely difficult.
“The journey from talent to success is erratic and unpredictable. There is not one path from talent to success. Various studies show that the link between performance at a young age and possible later success is low. We should not focus blindly on youthful excellers, but also focus on late bloomers. A swimming star like Marrit Steenbergen [wereldkampioen 100 meter vrije slag] was very good at a very young age, but Arno Kamminga, Olympic medalist in the breaststroke, only made his breakthrough at a later age.”
So the mystery of your thesis – what makes a talent a winner – has not yet been unraveled?
Laughing: “That’s actually a good thing. Wouldn’t it be very boring if we already knew from a 13-year-old cycling boy that he was going to be the next Pogacar? Sport is especially fun because it is unpredictable.”
What do you do at the volleyball association to develop talent?
“In the past, the emphasis was mainly on training a lot and hard, from an early age. The 10,000-hour rule of Canadian Malcolm Gladwell was trending, to reach the top level you needed those hours. We now know from scientific literature that if you immerse a 12-year-old child in a performance environment, there is a good chance that he or she will drop out due to a lack of fun.
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“In my work for Nevobo, I put scientific insights into talent development into practice, and I also conduct research myself. We are currently trying to find a method for measuring game insight. We show a player a game situation, then black out the image and ask the player where the ball ends up. I also analyze the careers of (former) top players. I look at the path they have taken to play for the best clubs in Europe. I try to extract recurring patterns from this. to better understand which steps contribute to successful progression. For example, before a player starts playing in a top competition in Italy or Turkey, he first takes an intermediate step at a club at a slightly lower level, for example in Germany.
“At the volleyball association, we are going for the gradual path, slowly growing to the top level. With attention to the individual athlete, with an eye for study and fun. Don’t forget, the road to the top requires a lot of time and effort. Then you have to really enjoy the top sports life, otherwise you won’t make it.
“The young talents receive regional training once a week. From the age of 16, talents come to Papendal. They live here part of the week and continue to play at their club. We make a personal development plan for each player. How advanced are they technically, tactically, but also physically and mentally? And how much stretch is there still in them? For example, someone of 17 can jump high, but how much training has he put into it, can he do even better? We also let more coaches take a look, so that you get diverse perspectives.”
After the recent Winter Games – third in the medal table – the Netherlands can call itself a top sports country. Is there still room for it?
“Certainly. An athlete’s ceiling is partly determined by the level of his coaches. In other countries this is a separate profession. Here we often do it in addition to another job. With more full-time talent coaches we raise the level of training and guidance of our talents, and thus the chance of success.
“Science can also contribute. Examples? Think of biomechanics to improve jumping power, exercise physiology to train smarter, nutrition to provide even more energy, and psychology to get our top players confident and calm in the competition. The end is not yet in sight, as far as I am concerned.”
