“They wrinkled. They did not dare for fear of the disarmament of positions in pesos. Long live the carry trade,” he posted. Cristina Kirchner in her personal account on the social network X. The former vice president of Alberto Fernandez shared an image from the Infobae portal that announces the Executive’s decision to maintain the interest rate in pesos and a slower pace of adjustment for the dollar.
In the note from the digital newspaper, to which he referred Kirchner, It is explained that the BCRA decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 32% nominal annual rate after the December inflation data and having communicated that from February the monthly update rate of the official dollar will go from 2% to 1 percent.
The carry trade is a maneuver that consists of chasing profits in dollars by betting on interest rates in pesos. If the performance in local currency exceeds the price movement of the North American currency, in this case the financial versions such as the MEP dollar or the counted dollar with settlement, the investor who resorted to that strategy has greater purchasing power in dollars at the end of the year. trade.
On the other hand, the Central Bank, with the decision not to lower the interest rate, will maintain the reference yield paid by investments in pesos such as fixed terms. A lower rate was read by the market as the next step in the BCRA’s monetary policy along with an official exchange rate with a slower devaluation. The December inflation figure of 2.7% was somewhat higher than the 2.4% in November, before readjusting the exchange rate scheme, which in the case of the crawling peg remained unchanged since December 2023.
The last drop in the reference rate took place at the end of November, when the BCRA took it from 35 to 32 percent. The market assumed that after knowing the inflation data for December and an exchange rate of 1% monthly, the Central Bank had room to lower the reference rate to maintain the carry trade. The truth is that for the moment the organization decided to maintain its reference rate, despite having reduced the crawling peg by half.
by RN
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