Nottingham Forest on course for the Champions League despite high fluctuation

Last European in 1996

In recent years, Nottingham Forest has been synonymous with chaotic transfer windows and relegation battles. But the Tricky Trees have developed into the surprise team in the Premier League this season and are in third place after 20 match days. Nuno Espírito Santo, who took over from Steve Cooper in December 2023, has turned the 1979 and 1980 European Cup winners into a top team despite high staff turnover.

In the summer of 2024, eleven additions were welcomed at the City Ground for 105 million euros. The most expensive of them was Elliot Anderson (21), who came from Newcastle United for the club’s record fee of 41.2 million euros. In terms of squad value, the club is in tenth place in the Premier League with 422 million euros. It was a quiet transfer window by Nottingham standards, as 58 new professionals have been signed since promotion in 2022, 40 of which cost a million euros or more – a worldwide record ahead of Chelsea, which recorded 38 million transfers. In Europe’s top five leagues, only Hellas Verona has announced more signings since then – 67 in total.

Nottingham paid 431 million euros for his 58 transfers, which is equivalent to tenth place in the international comparison of spending since summer 2022. The Tricky Trees invested more than Liverpool FC or Newcastle United. The fluctuation in the squad was particularly high, as 82 players left the club during the same period – including 42 on loan. Taiwo Awoniyi, who came from Union Berlin for 22 million euros in July 2022, is Nottingham’s longest-serving professional after Ryan Yates, who has been there since 2016.

In previous years, Nottingham finished 16th and 17th. After Monday evening’s 3-0 win at Wolverhampton Wanderers, Espírito Santo’s team is in third place with 40 points, level with Arsenal. We already have more points than in previous seasons. Nottingham is also the only team to beat league leaders Liverpool in the Premier League. Espírito Santo managed to develop the team further despite the high fluctuation and give it an identity.

Nottingham’s formula for success: stable defense and quick transitions

“The basis of Nottingham’s success is a defensively stable foundation,” explains Ben Littlemore, Content Manager UK at Transfermarkt. With only 19 goals conceded, Forest has the best defense after Arsenal and along with Liverpool. Matz Sels kept a clean sheet nine times – no goalkeeper kept a clean sheet more often. For Littlemore, the guarantees of success are two central defenders: “The defensive stability is up Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic attributed. The latter was signed from Fiorentina for just €12.3 million and has undoubtedly proven to be one of the summer’s new signings. The Serbian, a huge, dominant centre-back, complements the attacking Murillo beautifully and they have formed one of the best duos in the league.”

On offense, Chris Wood is in the form of his life. With twelve goals in 20 appearances, the 33-year-old attacker is one of the most accurate players in the Premier League. He could soon equal his record from the previous season, when he scored 14 times. “Wood is the target player in Nottingham’s quick transition. “He ties up several defenders and creates space for his teammates,” says Littlemore. After West Ham United loanee James Ward-Prowse, Wood has the most experience in the squad with 247 Premier League appearances.

Behind Wood is the offensive trio consisting of Anthony Elanga, Callum Hudson Odoi and Morgan Gibbs-White for a furor. The latter is the linchpin of Nottingham’s attack and delights the spectators. “Gibbs-White has taken his game to a new level this season. “He is the star of the Nottingham Forest team and has a good chance of a regular place in the England national team,” says Littlemore. He currently has four goals and three assists in 16 games.

Nottingham on course for the Champions League – first comparisons with Leicester 2015/16

There are now several parallels to Leicester City, which won the English championship as a relegation candidate in the 2015/16 season. “What Leicester achieved in 2016 was special and will probably never be repeated, but Nottingham’s achievements are similar to those of Claudio Ranieri’s team back then.” After 20 matchdays, the Foxes had 40 points, the same as Nottingham current. However, the gap to league leaders Arsenal was only two points, there is a gap of six points between Liverpool and Nottingham and the Reds have one game less.

“No one expects Forest to repeat Leicester’s heroics and win the Premier League this season. However, current performances confirm the impression that Nottingham is a serious candidate for the top four.” After Monday’s win, the lead over fifth-placed Newcastle United is five points. At the City Ground, fans are already dreaming of their first European nights since 1996, when they lost to FC Bayern in the quarter-finals of the UEFA Cup.