By Steffen Gosenheimer
DOW JONES–The Christmas rally on Wall Street is picking up speed again at the beginning of the week – especially for the Nasdaq indices, which are considered particularly interest rate sensitive. You gain up to 1.2 percent at lunchtime. The S&P 500 is still progressing by 0.4 percent. The Dow Jones index, which has only 30 stocks, is lagging behind, falling slightly to 43,818 points. It is slowed down by losses at heavyweight Unitedhealth (-3.1%) as well as Nvidia (-2.3) and Chevron (-2.1%). Not much is happening on the US bond market; after the recent significant increases, yields are inconsistent within narrow limits.
When the US Federal Reserve makes its interest rate decision on Wednesday, the market is firmly expecting a key interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4.25 to 4.50 percent. For the period thereafter, the pace of interest rate cuts is likely to be slowed down, as the US Federal Reserve has repeatedly announced against the backdrop of the strong US economy.
New economic data is no longer disrupting interest rate expectations after what was supposed to be the last stumbling block was removed last week with the expected inflation data for December. The Empire State Manufacturing Index for December fell more than expected, reflecting expectations of a Interest rate cut rather substantiated. On the other hand, the purchasing managers’ indices for industry and the service sector were better than forecast, although the index for industry in December was still in the range indicating contraction.
Little is happening with the dollar, it is falling slightly against the euro to 1.0513. The analysts at ING see the US currency as well protected on the downside – because of the recent interest rate cuts in the EurozoneSwitzerland and Canada. while at the same time the outlook for the US economy is solid. There is therefore little reason for the US Federal Reserve to “dove-like surprises”. The price of gold is rising slightly, oil prices are falling slightly. There is talk of profit-taking in the oil market.
Honeywell International and crypto stocks wanted
Among the individual stocks, Honeywell International rose by 3.9 percent. The company is considering a spin-off of its aerospace division, around a month after activist investor Elliott called for a split of the US conglomerate.
Super Micro fell by a good 7 percent. According to a district report, the AI server manufacturer is planning a capital increase. Microstrategy (+7.0%) is wanted for inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. The share is also benefiting from the fact that Bitcoin has reached a new high. Shares of other companies with Bitcoin fantasy are also rising: Coinbase Global by 3.3, Robinhood Markets by 1.6 percent. In addition to Microstrategy, Palantir (-3.7%) and Axon (+0.5%) will also be added to the Nasdaq 100 index on December 23rd. Super Micro Computer Moderna (+1.0%) and Illumina (+0.4%) have to vacate their places.
A report in the Wall Street Journal that the regional banks Berkshire Hills Bancorp (-1.4%) and Brookline Bancorp (-0.3%) are said to be discussing a merger is causing little movement in the affected stocks.
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INDEX last +/- % absolute +/- % YTD
DJIA 43,817.99 -0.0% -10.07 +16.3%
S&P 500 6,076.02 +0.4% 24.93 +27.4%
Nasdaq Comp. 20,113.74 +0.9% 187.02 +34.0%
Nasdaq-100 22,030.40 +1.1% 250.14 +30.9%
US bonds
Maturity Yield Bp to VT Yield VT +/-Bp YTD
2 years 4.24 -0.3 4.24 -18.5
5 years 4.25 -0.0 4.25 24.7
7 years 4.32 +0.3 4.32 35.2
10 years 4.40 +0.7 4.39 51.9
30 years 4.61 +1.5 4.60 64.4
FOREX last +/- % Mon, 8:10 Fri, 17:32 % YTD
EUR/USD 1.0518 +0.2% 1.0517 1.0496 -4.8%
EUR/JPY 162.04 +0.5% 161.54 161.32 +4.1%
EUR/CHF 0.9391 +0.1% 0.9368 0.9376 +1.2%
EUR/GBP 0.8286 -0.4% 0.8323 0.8313 -4.5%
USD/JPY 154.08 +0.3% 153.64 153.68 +9.4%
GBP/USD 1.2692 +0.6% 1.2636 1.2625 -0.2%
USD/CNH (Offshore) 7.2882 +0.1% 7.2859 7.2791 +2.3%
Bitcoin
BTC/USD 106,947.60 +3.5% 105,075.90 100,420.90 +145.6%
ROHOEL most recently VT-Settlem. +/-% +/- USD% YTD
WTI/Nymex 70.73 71.29 -0.8% -0.56 +1.1%
Brent/ICE 73.79 74.49 -0.9% -0.70 -0.2%
GAS VT Settlem. +/- EUR
Dutch TTF 39.5 41.13 -4.0% -1.63 +7.1%
METALS last day previous +/- % +/- USD % YTD
Gold (spot) 2,654.22 2,648.36 +0.2% +5.86 +28.7%
Silver (spot) 30.62 30.55 +0.2% +0.07 +28.8%
Platinum (spot) 941.70 925.73 +1.7% +15.97 -5.1%
Copper future 4.15 4.15 -0.0% -0.00 +4.9%
YTD based on the previous day’s closing level
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DJG/DJN/gos/mgo
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 16, 2024 12:49 ET (17:49 GMT)