From January 1st 2025, the new legislation will come into force in Europe which obliges manufacturers to drastically reduce the CO2 production of vehicles: will we be able to avoid the collapse of the system?
A few days until the crisis, until proven otherwise. They officially come into force from January 1st the new Corporate Average Fuel Economy rules (average company mileage, ed.), abbreviated to a more friendly one Cafebut translatable into the obligation imposed on all car manufacturers to market models that consume less fuelmeasuring the result in lower CO2 emissions. The new limit established by the Cafe legislation corresponds to approximately a 95 grams of CO2 per kilometreaverage figure calculated on the totality of models put on the market in the European Union by each individual manufacturer. The current Cafe legislation instead allows a maximum limit higher than 110 grams. It goes without saying that, to stay within 95 grams, companies would have to massively increase the pricepercentage of electric cars sold out of the totala hypothesis that the market does not seem to allow. Otherwise, there is a fine of 95 euros for each gram of excess, to be multiplied by the total sum of cars sold in the year. According to financial analysts at Barclays bank, car manufacturers are likely to pay overall over 10 billion euros in fines for 2025 alone. Other estimates project even higher figures, i.e. up to 15 billion.
The way out
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Paradoxically, the imminent financial impact of the Cafe legislation has been largely underestimated compared to the better-known community program Fit for 55″or the block on the sale of cars with combustion engines in the 27 EU countries starting from 1 January 2035. For the latter there is a way out, a revision clause which obliges the Commission by December 2026 “to monitor the gap between the emission limit values and real data on fuel and energy consumption”. Much more complex counteract the consequences of Cafethe entry into force of which may be suspended or delayed calling into question only article 122 paragraph 1 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, as can happen for all community regulations in the event of an emergency of a national nature, or of a general and economic nature.