One year after assuming the presidency, Javier Milei It is positioned with indicators that reflect a remarkably favorable political panorama for its administration. According to the consultant’s report Argentina thinksled by Facundo Nejamkisthe ruling party has achieved reverse the wear and tear of the previous monthsreaching unprecedented levels of support and optimism in his management. This scenario raises questions about the consolidation of Milei’s political capital and the difficulties the opposition faces in countering it.
Rising popularity
The popularity of Javier Milei has grown for the second consecutive monthplacing itself in a 53% positive imagewith a favorable differential of 7 points. This data not only shows a recovery after the falls in August and September, but also positions him above several of his peers after completing one year in office. Comparatively, Milei equals the approval levels that Mauricio Macri and Alberto Fernández had at the end of their first 12 months in power (55%)but with a key difference: while Macri and Fernández closed their first year with obvious wear and tear, Milei does so on the rise.
Economic optimism
A revealing fact from the report is the increase in optimism regarding the situation in the country. 52% of those surveyed consider that Argentina is better than a year agowhile 54% believe that they will be better within a year, which marks historical highs in this administration. This positive climate seems to have reinforced the official support base, which amounts to 53%, surpassing those who declare themselves opponents (46%).
Optimism is especially strong among voters who supported Milei and Patricia Bullrich in 2023, suggesting notable cohesion within the libertarian core. By region, the interior of Buenos Aires emerges as a bastion of the ruling party (54% adherents), while Patagonia shows greater resistance, with only 31% pro-government supporters.
Opposition crisis
While Milei consolidates its base, the opposition faces a deterioration in the image of its main leaders. The lack of clear leadership and a cohesive narrative appear to have affected their ability to capitalize on possible mistakes by the ruling party. This situation reinforces the perception of a political scenario where Milei dominates the agenda, limiting the margin of action of his adversaries.
The analysis suggests that Milei’s disruptive narrative and personalistic leadership style have contributed to sustaining his political capital. Furthermore, the improvement in economic expectations could be linked to a perception of stability or the fulfillment of some of the most notable promises of his campaign.
Success factors
However, this scenario is not without challenges. Maintaining a high level of approval in contexts of complex governance is an arduous taskand the natural wear and tear of power could begin to manifest itself in the second year of office.
Javier Milei’s first year ends with indicators that strengthen him politically, highlighting a recovery in his image and growing optimism about the future of the country. Nevertheless, The balance between consolidating its achievements and meeting the challenges of the second year will be crucial in determining whether current support translates into prolonged stability or if, as with his predecessors, political capital begins to erode over time. The opposition, for its part, faces the challenge of reorganizing itself and articulating a convincing alternative if it wishes to balance the political board in the coming years.
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