Nearly fourteen years after Syrians revolted against President Bashar al-Assad, Syrian rebels captured the civil war-ravaged country in about eleven days. Reconstruction of a surprisingly quick victory march.
Wednesday November 27
Rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launch an offensive in northwestern Syria. According to several analysts, the so-called ‘Deterrence of Aggression’ offensive initially had a local character. A key goal was to clear areas west of the city of Aleppo, from where the regime had been shelling towns and villages in rebel-held territory for years, said Syria expert Charles Lister of the Middle Eastern Institute, a US think tank.
The offensive was supposed to take place in October, but was called off because Turkey got wind of the operation, Lister said at a conference in Doha on Saturday. The HTS still launched the attack at the end of November. Various media, including The Times of Israel and Middle Eastern Eye report that Turkey ultimately gave the green light for the attack, something Lister disputes. It is clear that the pro-Turkish group SNL (Syrian National Army) simultaneously launched its own offensive northeast of Aleppo.
The ease with which the rebels can advance surprises many, including probably the militias themselves. They push on towards Aleppo.
Saturday November 30th
Government forces appear to be melting away under pressure from the rebel offensive. After armed groups reached the outskirts of Aleppo on Friday evening, November 29, the battle for Syria’s second city lasted less than a day.
Morale among the soldiers of the unpopular Assad is low. Soldiers are paid little and the army consists largely of conscripts. A few days later, Assad increases the wages of professional soldiers by 50 percent, in an attempt to boost morale. In addition, the state of the army after years of civil war, mismanagement and sanctions is “a reflection of the general collapse of Syrian government institutions,” said Jihad Yazigi, editor-in-chief of The Syria Report.
The rebels, on the other hand, have used the last few years to better organize themselves. For example, the HTS militia set up a military academy in 2021 and a command center was set up for this offensive. In promotional videos, HTS features commando troops, such as the ‘Red Bands’ unit, named after the bandanas they wear around their heads. HTS is assisted from the air by the ‘Valkenbrigade’, a drone unit.
The rebels themselves are also under fire from the air. In the days before, the Russians, allies of Assad, carried out according to data collective ACLED roughly forty air strikes on rebel positions. The big question is whether Russia and Assad’s other ally Iran will help the regime further. In the meantime, the rebels are targeting the next major city to the south, Hama.
Thursday December 5
While government forces chose to withdraw from Aleppo, they are trying to hold out at Hama, a strategic junction on the M5 highway towards Damascus. However, after four days of fighting, the rebels also managed to enter the city here on Thursday morning. Early in the afternoon, the Syrian army confirmed that it had lost control of the city.
Confidence among the rebels is growing. A video message from HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani addressed to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani appears in the afternoon, in which he emphasizes that the rebels are not looking for a fight with Iraq. On the contrary, Jolani looks forward to “strategic, economic and political ties” between Iraq and the “new Syria.”
Friday December 6
As the rebels advance towards Homs, Iran begins evacuating military commanders and personnel from Syria. Medi Rahmati, a prominent Iranian analyst and government advisor, tells the The New York Times that Iran “cannot advise or support the Syrian regime if the army itself does not want to fight.”
Unlike in 2012, Iran has not wanted to offer Assad serious support in recent days, or has not had the time to do so. The Russians, who have their hands full with Ukraine, are also only helping Assad to a limited extent. They do bomb an important bridge near the town of Rastan, between Hama and Homs. This was damaged but not completely destroyed.
Inspired by the advance in the north, local armed groups are opening a second front in the Daraa province south of Damascus. Videos emerged online Friday afternoon of dozens of men on motorcycles heading north. That evening, local rebels occupied most of the southern city of Daraa. In nearby Sweida, where many Druze live, rebels storm government offices and prisons. Kurdish forces in the north and rebel groups in the east are also launching offensives.
Saturday December 7
Fighting takes place near Homs on the night from Friday to Saturday. The city is a hinge point connecting the north with the south of Syria. If Assad loses Homs, he will lose access to the coastal towns of Tartus and Latakia, and therefore access to the Mediterranean Sea.
That evening, that is exactly what happens when eyewitnesses see rebels pushing through the city’s central neighborhoods on Saturday evening. Syrian rebel commander Hassan Abdul Ghany Homs confirmed that the city has been completely liberated and that more than 3,500 prisoners have also been freed from the military prison. The road to Damascus is open.
At that moment, the rebels in the south are also in the suburbs of the capital. In one of those suburbs, Jermana, just 10 kilometers from the center of Damascus, citizens on Saturday toppled a statue of Hafez al-Assad, the father of current President Bashar al-Assad. Damascus residents say there is confusion and fear on the streets of the capital. Assad is nowhere to be seen.
Sunday December 8
Although the Syrian Interior Ministry spoke the day before of the defense of Damascus as “a ring of steel,” the rebels can flow into the capital virtually without resistance.
Reuters reports that Assad fled the country by plane on Sunday morning. A little later they appear rebels on state television declaring that “the regime of the tyrant Bashar al-Assad has been overthrown.”
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Bashar al-Assad: a brutal dictator full of assertiveness who scorched Syria
