Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s analysis of the fall of the Syrian regime raises fundamental questions about its global implications, highlighting both geopolitical reconfigurations and challenges for Latin America. “The Baath regime in Syria was abandoned by Russia, new alliance with Trump?” he wrote on Twitter.
1. Geopolitical reconfiguration in the Middle East
- Displacement of pan-Arabism and rise of fundamentalism: Petro affirms that “the Arab country is moving to the right towards fundamentalism, like Afghanistan”, which suggests a turn towards religious extremism to the detriment of secular pan-Arabism, whose survival he himself questions: “Will Pan-Arabism and its secular idea die?”.
- Expansion of Israel and isolation of minorities: According to Petro, “Israel will grow even more, taking over Syrian lands”which would intensify tensions in the region. In this context, the Kurds and Palestinians are isolated: “Palestinians and Kurds will be even more alone”.
- Iran’s greatest influence: Petro sees an Iranian strengthening in the region, indicating that “perhaps Iran, as in Iraq, will gain more Shiite influence”which could further unbalance sectarian dynamics in the Middle East.
2. New alliances and international betrayals
- Russia and a possible strategic turn: Petro points out that “The Baath regime in Syria was abandoned by Russia”which could imply a change in Russian geopolitical priorities. He also questions whether there will be a territorial transfer in Ukraine: “Will a land cession to Russia follow in Ukraine? Will Zelensky and Western Europe be betrayed on the right?”.
- China as a decisive actor: Petro mentions that China, like “the largest owner of the world’s debt”could play an ambiguous role: paralyzing the financing of decarbonization or leading a transition towards a sustainable economy through “planning arising from a dialogue of civilizations”.
3. Impacts for Latin America
- New abandonments in the Caribbean: Petro asks if there will be a distancing of traditional allies: “Will they abandon Cuba and will Venezuelan oil be a negotiating card?”. This could redraw alliances in the region, affecting stability in the Caribbean.
- The time of progressivism: Petro sees in progressive movements a global alternative to a system that he associates with greed and barbarism: “The progressive hour of the people has arrived and it is the hope that remains”. It also raises the need for Latin America to move forward together to lead organizations such as the OAS and project its democratic model: “Will Latin American progressivism be able to unite and win the OAS and continue shining the lighthouse of democracy on a world that turns off the lights?”.
Petro’s analysis reflects how the fall of the Syrian regime can unleash unpredictable dynamics, affecting not only the Middle East, but also Latin America. Their questions invite us to reflect on the need for strategic alliances and solid leadership to face the challenges of a world in transformation.
by RN
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