By Nikolaus Harbusch, Hans-Jörg Vehlewald and Angelika Hellemann
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (February 24, 2022), Chancellor Olaf Scholz (65, SPD) has been carrying his promise like a mantra.
EVERY YEAR, Germany will invest 2 percent of its economic power in defense. He recently reiterated his oath at the NATO summit in Vilnius in mid-July.
But now it’s official: The traffic light refuses to implement the promise legally!
On Wednesday, the cabinet deleted a corresponding passage in the draft of the budget financing law, which should cement the determination (2 percent) “from 2024 annually” – instead of only “on a multi-year average of a maximum of five years”.
An oath of revelation in terms of “turning point”!
Because now the following applies: Let’s see … If it doesn’t work out next year, the expenses have to increase even more in the following year. Or even later, even higher.
But it gets even worse: The 2 percent growth is not even certain for 2024. According to BILD information, there is a financial gap of at least 14.5 billion euros!
And the chancellor apparently wants to fill this with the most absurd book tricks in order to fool NATO into believing that the traffic light has reached the promised 2 percent.
The bill
In the Bundeswehr budget (departmental plan 14 for pay, ammunition, running costs of the troops). 51.8 billion euros estimated for 2024 – an increase of almost two billion, which will be eaten up by the wage increase for the soldiers alone.
More 19.2 billion euros will flow for 2024 from the “Bundeswehr special fund” (100 billion) into the rearmament of the troops (e.g. for the F-35 fighter jet, the “Arrow 3” missile shield, heavy transport helicopters of the Chinook type).
Altogether: 71 billion euros, a pretty sum …
BUT: In order to achieve two percent of economic power (gross domestic product), you would have to 85.5 billion euros in defense – so 14.5 billion are missing in the budget.
And so Scholz is now tricking the bill nicely.
According to BILD information, there was a crisis talk between Scholz and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (63, SPD) with the aim of at least complying with the 2 percent on paper. Pistorius just has to scrape together every euro and add it to the defense in an imaginative way – no matter how!
The way there
► 4 billion euros in military aid for Ukraine are included – that is plausible.
► Crazy: Another 4 billion euros in interest payments for the 100 billion special fund (these are only loans) are to be booked as “military expenditure”.
► Even more crazy: The Ministry of Defense’s share of the interest burden for the total debt of the federal government (2024: 39 billion euros) should also be deducted and booked as “military expenditure”. Makes an additional 5 billion euros.
︎ The rest could be filled with military-related expenses from other ministries, as an internal paper from the troops suggests, such as the “supply of soldiers of the former National People’s Army”. Results in: another 865 million euros.
This means that the NATO promise would be kept – at least on paper. Somehow.
The opposition is appalled!
CDU budget expert Ingo Gädechens complained to BILD that it was a “pathetic spectacle” by the chancellor: “The 2 percent promise only works with the worst budgetary tricks. The fact that interest is now also supposed to be defense expenditure knocks the bottom out of the barrel. Soldiers can defend our country – but not interest!”
When it comes to the “turning point” and defense, Scholz is acting “irresponsibly and is once again undermining the trust of the soldiers and our NATO allies”.
When asked by BILD, the Ministry of Defense merely stated “that the Federal Government is sticking to the achievement of the 2 percent target”, its commitment “to its international alliance obligations in NATO and within the EU reaffirms”, and that the Bundeswehr, as promised, will pay two percent of the domestic product “should”.
As usual: smoke candles.