The regional and municipal elections have shaken the political tableau and, without a solution of continuity, gave way to the general elections, that is, to the definitive battle between Pedro Sanchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo. After the birth of Addthe coalition that leads Yolanda Diaz to which finally, not without tension, has joined Can, the last shock is being the autonomous pacts between the PP and Vox. With one week to go before the electoral campaign begins, the latest polls have consolidated expectations for both the PP and as for him PSOEin such a way that the popular ones establish themselves in the first position and reinforce their options to govern if they rely on the extreme right of voxwith which they could add absolute majority. The Socialists benefit from the fact that Sumar does not absorb all the votes of Podemos, but in the last week they have not been able to advance.
The Sumar landing between April and May marked a turning point in the voting trends on an electoral board always prone to volatility that provides the evolution of the economy or the setbacks of the Government and opposition. Specifically, Díaz’s platform redistributed the whole of the vote progressive, which began to be divided between the PSOE, Sumar and Unidas Podemos, but without it growing. A dynamic that is maintained after the first bars of the new coalition: the Socialists rise but the majority of the left does not improve their expectations. Now, despite the fact that the strength of the conservative bloc It is also maintained, the sum of PP and Vox does not grow either.
The average of all the polls on the general elections published since April 2023 (when the Sumar platform was launched) keeps the PP in first position and with an advantage of 6.1 points on the PSOE, which represents one tenth more than two weeks ago. That tenth is the one that the popular have won in the last week, during which there have been no variations in the record of the Socialists. Feijóo would now achieve the 32.6% of the votes and Sánchez would get the 26.5% of the votes.
Converted that average into seats, the difference in favor of the Conservatives stands at 41 seats, the same distance as last week. The PP would get today 140 deputies and the PSOE, 99. During the month of June, Feijóo has won two seats and Sánchez has added three. In April 2022, when the former Galician president assumed the leadership of the PP, the Prime Minister was 17 seats ahead of the popular ones. Since then, the conservatives have won 34 deputies and the PSOE has lost 7.
The calculations made by EL PERIÓDICO based on a formula used by Ivan Serranoa researcher at the UOC’s IN3 (Internet Interdisciplinary Institute), correspond to the Weighted average of the main published polls. The weighting is carried out, as in other formulas of this type, based on the sample size (the larger, the higher value) and of the field work date (the more recent, the more significant).
It is important to note that some surveys, such as those of the CIS, only offer vote estimates, but not of seats, which influences the averages of each variable. And the averages are also conditioned by the fact that until now some studies have contemplated Sumar and Podemos separately and others in a coalition.
The respective communicating vessels of PP and PSOE (vox and United We Can) follow the trail of popular and socialist. Parallel to the growth of Feijóo, the extreme right of Santiago Abascal loses a seat in the last week and stays in 40 deputies and 13.6% of the votes, one tenth more than seven days ago. Since its setback in the Andalusian elections, a year ago now, Vox has lost five and a half points and 19 seats, but it could shield its status as the third political force in Congress without problems and would have the exclusive key for Feijóo to reach Moncloa .
already with Add and Can allied, the Díaz brand would obtain 12.7% of the votes and 31 deputies, one point and one seat more than a week ago. When it had not yet confirmed its integration into the new platform, the party of Ione Belarra he was left with only 4% of the votes and 4 deputies, while Sumar had already climbed to 29 parliamentarians. That is to say, Díaz has not yet managed to capitalize on all the votes and the seats of Podemos before the unitary candidacy.
Related news
Another movement caused by the result of the municipal elections is the fall of CKD and the growth of together for Catalonia. Since 28-M, while the Republicans have lost two parliamentarians and stand at 10 seats, the post-convergents have added two representatives (the last one this past week) and stand with 9 deputies. In his particular pulse, the GNP and EH Bildu would tie at 6 seats and Spain Empty would achieve 1 deputies. The remaining 8 seats in Congress would be shared by other political forces.
These averages would allow Feijóo to reach Moncloa only with the support of Vox, since both forces would add 181 seats, three more than before the municipal ones and five above the absolute majority. The rights are still far above the 141 deputies that they harvested in the 2019 election and the popular leader, if he chooses to agree with the extreme right, would not need a third support or several abstentions to unseat the left. On the contrary, the sum of the progressive bloc, now made up of PSOE and Sumar, is 130 seatsone less than before the municipal elections and well below the current 155 representatives.