He Mediterranean is a good example of the devastating effects of climate change: it is the second hottest place on the planet, only surpassed by the Arctic. And the room for maneuver to stop this trend is getting narrower.
The warming of the Mediterranean occurs mainly during the spring and summer months, which makes the summer season earlier and more intense. It is one of the main conclusions that María José López, professor of Physical Geography at the University of Valencia, shows in her study ‘How much is the Mediterranean warming up?’. “There is a growing consensus that it is not a projection of the future, but an evident reality,” she emphasizes. An affirmation supported by science: between 1982 and 2006 the surface temperature of the water in this sea increased by 0.71 degrees, a rate that is even four times the global average.
The data varies greatly depending on the study that is consulted, but there are those that are even more pessimistic. «Although the highest thermal values have been reached in sectors of the Arctic, the Mediterranean basin is characterized by having values that are above the planetary average. Recent work establishes an increase of 1.4 degrees in this area compared to the last two decades of the 19th century, while globally it would be 1 degree for the same period.».
This is how María José Estrela, tenured professor of the Department of Geography of the University of Valencia, collects it in ‘Environmental repercussions of climate change: certainties and uncertainties’. Representatives of the Ministry for Ecological Transition recall that the Mediterranean warms between two and three times more than other oceans. A true drama for the animal and plant species that inhabit it.
Unfortunately, the trend is far from being reversed. A scientific text collected by the prestigious magazine ‘The Lancet’ goes further: it estimates that between now and 2100 the environmental temperature could grow up to two degrees. In the worst case, even eight. This will directly impact rainfall, as scientists warn that for each degree of warming, the rains will decrease by four percent and will arrive in the form of more torrential episodes. In parallel, the demand for water will shoot up between 22 and 74 percent.
More evaporation than rainfall
But why does this happen? It cannot be ignored that a significant part of the blame lies with human activity in the area. «Human pressure has occurred without taking into account that the sea is an environmental system where multiple factors interact: any alteration entails impacts on global functioning whose consequences we are far from evaluating”, indicates María José López.
Specifically, the professor from the University of Valencia mentions the construction of reservoirs and the increase in water for agricultural consumption, two pieces of a puzzle that results in water losses from evaporation exceed the gains from rainfall and fluvial contributions.
To this must be added the alarm for the invasive species in this sea (WWF calculates that there are already more than a thousand), which are displacing the native fauna and flora of the Mediterranean basin. The environmental organization warns that, for example, molluscs have disappeared by 90 percent. In addition, jellyfish are becoming more and more common, a species that determines the summer season in the large sandbanks that bathe the Mediterranean.
«The seabed is being transformed due to the high temperatures and the intensity of the storms. Seagrass meadows have been reduced or even extinct. Posidonia oceanica, the populations of gorgonians and the nacras. Losing them would have a dramatic impact on the entire ecosystem.” To get an idea of the magnitude of the disaster, it is enough to know that Posidonia stores 42% of the CO2 emissions of neighboring countries.
DANAS, heat waves and floods
The historical characteristics of the Mediterranean basin do not help to mitigate the damage either. As María José López lists, there are periodic episodes of water scarcity, but also floods caused by extreme rainfall, situations of erosion and coastal degradation, alerts for contaminated water due to urban and industrial discharges and also forest fires, each time more frequent and devastating. And the season is brought forward every year. This 2023 the fires have opened the news in March.
The study of ‘The Lancet’ confirms this trend. He claims that The Mediterranean will be one of the places that will suffer the most from the climate emergency and this will have direct consequences on the population. Extreme weather and climate events will escalate, increasing the chances that infectious diseases will spread, heat-related illnesses will become more prevalent, and ultimately increase the number of global warming-related deaths. In fact, heat-related mortality has increased by 15 annual deaths per million inhabitants.
The effects of this are palpable. Exposure to heat waves has increased by 57% (on average, reaching more than 250% in some areas), and this has made a phenomenon that has a direct impact on the daily lives of citizens become practically chronic: drought. Water restrictions are our daily bread in some areas of Spain, but they are no longer exclusive to summer. For example, in the first half of 2023, Catalonia is facing a water shortage that has not been seen in decades.
«As a consequence of the high increase in extreme temperatures in a large part of the territory and especially in the Mediterranean area, the loss of thermal comfort on the part of the population is evident. This can be seen mainly in the well-known ‘tropical nights’”, points out María José Estrela. Sleeping when the thermometer does not drop below 20 degrees is not an easy task.
The scientific community continually warns that the climate will never be the same as the one our ancestors knew, but making the effects less devastating is not a utopia. Of course, you have to act now. “There is no quick way to stop climate change. Even if global measures to reduce polluting emissions are put in place immediately, temperatures will likely continue to rise for decades. What we can do is reduce human pressure and be resilient,” says a WWF report.
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INTERVIEW.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the ‘Copernicus’ climate change service
“2022 was a turning point”
A few minutes of conversation with Carlo Buontempo is enough to realize the magnitude of the problem that plagues the Mediterranean basin. The director of the climate change service of the European Union’s Copernicus program knows exactly what he is talking about, not only because of his experience in climate studies, but also because Italy, his native country, is one of the most affected by this ‘ perfect storm’ that occurs in the sea that also bathes eastern Spain.
-How has the Mediterranean reached this point?
It is very difficult to give a single reason. In the Mediterranean basin there are dry areas and that is why the temperature rises much faster. Also, global warming is causing the amount of snow and ice on the mountains to drop. The earth is blacker, darker, and collects more energy from the sun. Just last year we lost five cubic kilometers of ice.
What do the latest studies say?
-What stands out the most is summer. The past began in May with heat waves that followed in the following months. In 2022 we suffered the warmest summer at a European level and, globally, it was one of the eight with the highest temperatures. 2022 is going to be a turning point, it is the result of years with little rainfall and higher values. It is already a pattern, it is not an isolated event. The direction is very clear.
-The forecasts are bad. Are we in time to do something?
-We know that the climate is changing and to a large extent we are responsible. Things can be done, it is never too late, but to do it we need quality data. The necessary changes are far-reaching and affect the economic system, the way of generating energy… We have time, but we have to put our batteries together.
-Is the climate emergency really on the first page of the political agenda?
-Politicians react to the priorities of citizens. And although the population does not trust what scientists say, they know how to react when they see danger. The temperatures we saw last May, the drought, the forest fires… Something is changing. Maybe the scientists were right.
-2022 was marked by an event that shook the energy market. Has the war in Ukraine been the ‘excuse’ that was needed to act?
-It is enough to see the actions that Europe took in the last year and a half. Is incredible. We change very quickly the economy and the way of generating energy. If we did it for a geopolitical issue, we can also do it to solve a problem that has no end in the short term. The model of transportation, food, water management must be modified… Everything must be changed. If we can learn anything from war, it is that we do have the ability to change when there is a need, and to do it quickly.
-In the specific case of the Mediterranean, what should be the priority?
-The climate reacts to the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. If we want to save it, we must stop the generation of these gases. But it is that, although tomorrow they could be lowered to zero, the climate would continue to change in the coming decades.
Are the cities ready?
-In the Mediterranean, they are better prepared than those in northern Europe, but that does not mean that we can sit idly by. You have to adapt the public space, the houses… You can opt for natural solutions, but you also have to count on architecture.
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