Speculation after mysterious explosions in occupied city of Mariupol: Ukraine already has new US long-range missiles in its hands? | War Ukraine and Russia

The port city of Mariupol, in the south of Ukraine in the Donetsk region, was heavily besieged immediately after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The fighting lasted for months and in the end the Russians won the day: Mariupol has been in Russian hands since May. Not much remains of the port city. Mariupol is devastated and desolate, new-build flats are springing up here and there as part of a propagandistic Russian reconstruction plan.

LOOK. Satellite images show what Mariupol looks like now

But recently, explosions suddenly sounded again in Mariupol. Among other things, an ammunition depot, a steel factory set up by the Russians as a military base, and two petrol depots were hit by unidentified weapons. There are at least 14 explosions. In parts of the occupied city, the power went out, the Russian air defense had to work.

Which weapons are behind the mysterious explosions is food for speculation, notes ‘De Volkskrant’, among others. In view of several cryptic messages from Ukrainian sources and the precision with which the attacks were accompanied, the main focus is on the long-range weapons that the United States promised to Ukraine at the beginning of this month. Did the country receive it earlier than expected? After all, the targets hit in Mariupol are normally just beyond the range of the HIMARS missiles that the US previously supplied to the Ukrainians.

Back to Friday, February 3: the US government confirms that Ukraine will receive highly precise US missiles with a longer range. The so-called Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) can hit targets up to 150 kilometers away, almost double the range of the HIMARS missiles delivered last summer, which can destroy targets up to 70 kilometers away. Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder told reporters that the bombs made by Boeing and Saab could thus threaten Russian positions behind the front lines. Mariupol, in Donetsk, is some 80 kilometers from the nearest front line.

Just before that, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had asked for long-range weapons at an EU summit in Kiev. The Ukrainian army would need this to defend the besieged city of Bachmut, which the Russians have now almost completely encircled, and to recapture the entire Donbas region, where Russia occupies large parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov assured shortly after the US pledge that the army would not use the bombs to attack targets on Russian territory. It would, however, use it to attack Russian units in occupied Ukrainian territory, he said combatively.

A spokeswoman for the Ukrainian army, like other sources, reacted cryptically last week in a statement about the explosions in Mariupol: “At the moment we can only say that inaccessibility is a very relative concept. What is considered so remote as to be inaccessible is not always so. The direction of Mariupol is no longer inaccessible to us.”

As far as is known, the GLSDB missiles have not yet been used in the war in Ukraine and the American delivery would also be very fast. The official explanation was earlier that the missiles had been ordered from the manufacturers, the expected delivery was earlier by June. The Pentagon declined to comment last week on questions about the deployment of the GLSDB in Ukraine.

There is therefore also speculation about the potential deployment of the Vilkha-M, a much less precise Ukrainian long-range missile system that the country deployed at the beginning of the war, but of which it is now uncertain how many it still has. Or maybe Ukrainian forces pushed a HIMARS system or other weapon closer to Mariupol for the attacks? Or were special drones used, which previously also hit targets across the border with Russia?

In any case, Ukraine plans to launch an offensive in the coming months to liberate some of the Russian-held areas in the east and south of the country. This includes Mariupol. That city was badly damaged, but it is important for Russia. It is the largest city that the Russians captured in 2022 and still control. It is also located on an important logistical route.

And the Russians, no doubt, are now worried about those mysterious explosions in ‘their’ area, an area they thought was beyond the normal range of Ukrainian attack capabilities.

LOOK. Everything about the war between Russia and Ukraine in pictures