Many German companies suffer from delivery bottlenecks. In addition, there are uncertainties due to the corona pandemic. What does this mean for business prospects and employment in the new year?
According to a survey, confidence generally dominates the German economy despite delivery bottlenecks and uncertainties due to the corona pandemic at the turn of the year. “There is broad optimism to be seen for the year 2022,” according to a study by the employer-related Institute of the German Economy (IW). The majority of the 48 trade associations surveyed by the IW from mid-November to the beginning of December are expecting better business in their sectors, a decline in production is not expected in any branch of the economy. In addition, the chances for more jobs are good in many areas.
The consequences of Omikron are still unclear
However, the consequences of the Omicron virus variant are difficult to assess. “The effects of Omikron are currently unmanageable, the information from the countries already affected is too contradictory,” said IW boss Michael Hüther. “I assume, however, that the economic trends resulting from normalization and catching up with high order backlogs will hold up.”
According to the survey, mechanical engineering and steel and metal processing were particularly optimistic. In view of the bulging order books, the machine-builders had raised their production forecasts. The leasing association and the information industry, which are benefiting from the demand in the course of digitization, also expect significantly better business.
Easy growth
Most of the industries (35) expect moderate growth in 2022. This also applies to the construction industry, which is actually booming, but the shortage of skilled workers there is dampening prospects. The IW attributes the overall good production prospects in industry in part to increasing investments around the world, from which above all manufacturers of capital goods such as machines and technical systems “Made in Germany” should benefit.
The finance sector and magazine publishers, on the other hand, do not expect any major leaps. The mining, shipbuilding and marine technology, leather industry and paper mills also expect a steady business situation.
According to the survey, the chances of increasing employment are good in many industries. Accordingly, 21 associations expect a plus. These include the pharmaceutical as well as the metal and electrical industries. In the construction industry and in the trades, companies are desperately looking for staff anyway.
A further 19 sectors are assuming the same number of employees, 8 branches of the economy from falling employment. In finance, for example, the changed customer behavior – more online banking and less use of branches – will likely eliminate jobs. (dpa)