ATP Finals, Nadal for glory against Ruud: odds and prediction of the match

For honor and glory, Rafael Nadal takes the field in Turin against Casper Ruud. Today the Majorcan, with his destiny already sealed, aims to avoid the third defeat in a row in a group that on paper (at least for the ranking) saw him as the favourite. Lagging in condition, certainly not facilitated by the very fast Turin surface, the Spaniard finds the Norwegian pupil, a training partner and a frequent visitor to his academy for years. Ruud who in turn can approach the contest with less pressure, having already detached the pass for the semifinals after the successes over Fritz and Auger-Aliassime (the direct clash in the evening).

Precedents and statistics

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It is only the second precedent between Nadal and Ruud. The first doesn’t smile at the Norwegian. In fact, there are only 6 games collected in the Roland Garros final played a few months ago. Rafa dominated on his red clay, which to tell the story is the favorite surface of both. On concrete, and with this version of the Spanish, it’s an open match.

For Ruud it is the second consecutive semifinal at the Finals in as many appearances. But it would be the first edition closed with a 3-0 in favor of him. On the contrary, it only happened to Nadal once to lose all the matches in the group in the tournament of masters, an appointment that he never fully digested and one of the few trophies missing from his infinite showcase. It was 2009: Djokovic, Davydenko and Soderling left Rafa empty handed.

Quotes

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The odds are not surprising looking at the journey of the two in this first glimpse of the Finals. Casper Ruud is the favorite for the bookies: the first victory against his idol is offered at 1.44 on Bet365, at 1.45 on Goldbet and at 1.50 on Snai. Nadal unlocks in Turin at a decidedly higher odds, confirming that the precedent in Paris is valid up to a certain point: the Spanish player is offered at 2.69 on NetBet, at 2.70 on Better and at 2.75 on Betfair.

The prediction

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Although the odds are in favor of the Norwegian, the contest at 2 pm promises to be balanced. To remain cautious, you can bet on the number of games: over 22.5, which is equivalent to slipping to the decisive partial or closing in two rather fought partials, is played at 1.86 on Goldbet and Better, at 1.93 on 888sport . Ruud is the favourite, but watch out for Nadal, who could snatch him at least by a set.