Marnix Fruitema, chairman of the interest group Barin of airlines at Schiphol, had expected that the aviation industry would recover after the corona pandemic. But he hadn’t imagined that that ‘catching up’ would go so quickly.
According to international aviation industry association IATA, the number of kilometers traveled by air travelers in September increased by 57 percent compared to the same period a year ago, it reported Tuesday. This increase is also visible at Dutch airports: in the third quarter of 2022, 18.7 million passengers traveled to and from one of the five national airports in the Netherlands, Statistics Netherlands reported on Tuesday. That is one and a half times as many as the 12 million passengers in the same period last year.
It is no surprise that people are traveling more again, says Bert van Wee, professor of transport policy at TU Delft. The global travel restrictions of the past two years have been largely lifted. People want to travel again, according to Van Wee, who will be staying in Australia for a sabbatical for three months. “All accommodations here are occupied.”
In Europe, air traffic increased by almost 80 percent compared to a year ago, according to IATA. In North America, there was even an increase of almost 130 percent. Global air traffic is almost three quarters of the September 2019 level, i.e. before the pandemic, according to IATA.
Business travelers
Fruitema believes that it is only a matter of time before the number of travelers is back to the old level. The world population is growing, so is mobility. In large countries such as China and India, less than a tenth of the population has ever been on an airplane, says Fruitema. “As soon as the people from those countries start flying, you will see that reflected in the figures.”
According to Van Wee, the number of business travelers will not return to the old level, because companies have discovered that many meetings can be held online just fine. In addition, online meetings are beneficial, says Van Wee: “Companies save on flight costs”.
The professor suspects that “flight shame” is increasing – travelers are more likely to take the train. Colleagues from the university in Oxford are not allowed to take a plane for distances of up to 650 kilometers, if the destination is also easily accessible by land. But a survey by I&O Research of May this year among 1,202 people shows that the shame of flying among the Dutch has actually declined slightly over the past three years. In October 2019, 18 percent of respondents said they feel “guilty” when flying, compared to 15 percent in April this year.
Budget airlines
According to Van Wee, budget airlines such as Ryanair and Easyjet are currently mainly benefiting from the increasing air traffic, because they are often used for holidays. For Ryanair, the biggest problems seem to be over, according to a figure published by the company on Monday. Passenger numbers exploded between April and October from 39.1 million in 2021 to 95.1 million this year. In the summer, a record number of passengers traveled with Ryanair.
Is the war between Ukraine and Russia affecting flight behaviour? Hardly, say Van Wee and Fruitema. A PhD student from Van Wee investigated the impact of major events on flight behaviour. This showed that the oil crises and 9/11 only caused a “ripple” in air traffic.
Also read this opinion piece by Floor Rusman: There is no flying shame