Fulham, who started the season brilliantly, will find themselves in a tough spot as a guest of Arsenal, who are on a winning streak.
Gabriel Jesus has scored two goals and provided three assists leading to goals in the early season. PDO
The most interesting game of the day
Among the promotion players, Fulham has performed the most in the Premier League so far. Marco Silva the team he leads is still unbeaten after three rounds after beating Brentford and drawing with both Liverpool and Wolves. Fulham’s threshold question before the season was the iconic goalscorer from the team’s Championship days Aleksandar Mitrovic sufficiency above the serial level. In recent seasons, Fulham has been an elevator team between the Premier League and the Championship. The previous visit at the top (2020-2021) was a complete failure for Fulham, and the worst thing was the goal scoring, after the team scored only 27 goals in 38 matches. Mitrovic, who also played in the top at the time, flopped badly and ended up in the role of substitute.
In the entire season, the Serbian scored only three Premier League goals. The goal balance and Mitrovic’s sufficiency against the tough defenses of the Premier League comes under scrutiny against the background that in the 2019-2020 season, the Serb won the Championship’s goal crown with 26 hits, and correspondingly, last season, there were a wild 43 hits. The three-goal season that came in between doesn’t really fit into the equation, and the Serbian practically has to succeed this season. Now both Fulham’s and Mitrovic’s season has started on a positive note, having already scored three times in the opening matches. Despite expecting a goal, Mitrovic alone has been able to create 3.4 goals. At least for now, Marco Silva has wanted to play with his team so that Mitrovic is the only thorn in the front of the attack. This underlines the importance of the Serbian’s success for his team. In terms of other material and potential, Fulham has already shown in the opening matches that they are sufficient in the Premier League.
Although forcing Liverpool to a 2-2 draw at home in the opening match was a tough performance, now the match against top-of-the-table Arsenal away from home can be considered even a tougher measure for Fulham than the opening game. If the matches of the training season are included, then the balance of Arsenal’s previous ten games is 9-0-1 goals 35-9! In the Premier League, Arsenal last won their first three matches in the 2004-2005 season.
The person who moved from Manchester City to the Gunners in the summer can be raised as a kind of question mark as the embodiment of Arsenal’s ignition Gabriel Jesus. Jesus, who used to have a bit of a reputation as a spendthrift and a slouch, along with his two goals, has been Arsenal’s number one player in terms of expected goals (2.2) and assists (1.0). There have been other successes at Arsenal in the early season Martin Odegaard mixed Gabriel Martinelli. Overall, Arsenal is currently a very fresh and functional team. At home, Mikel Arteta’s crew also plays quite attacking winning football, at least based on the Leicester match. Arsenal will enter the Fulham match with their best possible crew. Among the notable players on Fulham’s short list are midfield players Harry Wilson and Neeskens Kebano.
In terms of betting, in the Arsenal – Fulham derby, the possible/probable number of goals in the match is clearly the most interesting. Arsenal have enough firepower in their current form for easy overs, and even Silva rarely backs up. There is even a real goal celebration in the scenarios of this match. Veikkaus offers the market’s highest odds of 1.83 for more than 3.0 goals. This is good as a hint with an estimate of 55 percent.
Arsenal-Fulham starts at 19:30.
The best betting tip of the day
Saturday’s best long haul searches can be found in the Championship. Watford is still unbeaten in the series after five rounds of matches played, although they haven’t really impressed in any of the matches. Watford’s goal difference is 4-2, but measured by expectations, the correct reading should be 4.5-4.5; so the team has clearly overperformed.
It is also very significant for Watford that the team has weakened since the start of the season with several key players. Emmanuel Dennis already transferred to Nottingham and Ismaila Sarr mixed João Pedro are waiting for their transfers and are out of the team. In practice, the trio was completely responsible for the team’s offensive play in the first matches of the season. When even these men didn’t score goals, it’s probably even more difficult for the attackers in the second category.
Despite the weakening of Watford, QPR is not a better team in itself, but in this situation, when Watford is just looking for new working formations, you can try the away team for bets. Without a doubt, the most palatable handicap line is QPR’s +0.75, where half of the bet will be returned even with a possible victory of Watford by one goal. It’s hard to see Watford, with few goals and a weak attack, winning this match by at least two or more goals. On top of everything, Veikkaus’ offer of 1.78 to the +0.75 line is clearly the highest on the market.
Another really tasty top coefficient (1.92) can be found in the Cardiff – Preston match over 2.0 goals. Based on the results of the early season, both teams look like low-scoring teams. Seven goals have been scored in Cardiff’s five matches and only one in Preston’s first five matches. However, the readings are confusing. Especially for Preston, one scored goal does not correspond at all to the events of its matches and the nature of the games. So far, no less than 11 goals have been created in Preston’s matches! When the expected combined goals in Cardiff’s matches is also approaching nine goals, this match between them should not be considered as an automatic underdog. In my opinion, Veikkaus has now clearly overreacted to the results of the early season by setting their main goal number line at 2.0 goals and still hitting the under as their favorite case. My estimate for goals over 2.0 is 55 percent, and it’s a hefty multiplier. There is a risk of a multiplier drop in both of these items. The same day’s games were already tagged on Friday’s column, but I only add them to the track once.
Other possible searches are Wiga +0.25 with a coefficient of 1.91 and Ilves – Haka match over 2.5 goals with a coefficient of 1.70. The Championship matches start at 17:00 and the Veikkausliiga game at 15:00.
Today’s games: Watford – QPR+0.75 2 (odds 1.78) and Cardiff – Preston over 2.0 goals (odds 1.92).
Total balance of the day’s games for the year: 36/60/112%
Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.