The appearance of the coronavirus BA.5 mutationa subvariant of the omicron, has caused what we can already define as a seventh wave of infections, with a significant increase in almost all the parameters that allow us to assess the incidence of the disease. BA.5 is already the majority in Catalonia (the mutation represents more than 80% of the new positives) and its high capacity for infection has caused a notable increase in consultations in the CAP and hospitalizations. In the last weeks of June, the number of patients admitted to the ICUs has doubled (from 26 to 46) and the number of daily visits to primary care centers has risen to 19,000. Although the monitoring of the disease stopped being carried out in a generic way as soon as the policy of the so-called flu of the virus, the data tells us of more than 1,500 people hospitalized for covid, with a virus propagation speed (Rt) of 1.22, with a high positivity rate, 25.4%, well above the minimum of 5% that the WHO prescribes to control an epidemic, and with a rate of more than 400 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
It is evident, therefore, that the covid is still among us and that it should be remembered at all times that it continues to be a threat to public health. At the same time, however, it is necessary contextualize current data. At the peak of the sixth wave (January and February of this year) the case rate exceeded 3,000 per 100,000 and the Rt bordered on 2, with nearly 600 people admitted to the ICUs. As for visits to the CAP, on January 10 the record was broken with 110,000 attendances. I mean, nothing to see. The undeniable incidence of mass vaccinationthe decline in the mortality capacity of the virus and the appearance of more contagious but less aggressive variants they have to reassure a population that, little by little, has been getting used to the new normal, with no restrictions other than those related to transport or health centers. The most serious cases, moreover, now refer mainly to elderly people with some underlying disease.
Experts insist that covid will end up being just another respiratory disease, with its ups and downs, but at the same time they emphasize the recommendations on the Use of the mask by the most vulnerable population in closed spaces and the application of common sense in social interactions now normalized. The peak of this wave is expected to arrive in mid-July, with some 20,000 daily visits to the CAP and some 3,000 hospitalizations and the consequent increase in ICU care. A controllable circumstance, but aggravated by two factors that raise the alarm: the casualties among health workers and the vacations in a group that in these more than two years has reached the limit. At the same time, the Department of Health has asked the Ministry of Health to advance the fourth dose of vaccinations to those over 80 years of age, without waiting for autumn or for specific vaccines for the new variants. All this, with the aim of reducing the incidence in the most fragile groups and avoiding a potential increase in hospital activity, a true barometer of the epidemic.
Installed in a radically different summer from the previous two, without giving in to alarmism, we must be aware of the need to maintain prevention so that current records do not lead to a hypothetical collapse of the system.