The regional election campaign in Andalusia is heading towards the final stretch and EL PERIÓDICO offers a new daily update on the Predi prediction market to learn about the evolution of estimate of seats and the most likely form of government. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, this electoral tool works like a stock market and is based on the transactions of a remarkable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.
In addition, Predi is the only mechanism that allows you to follow the last minute of electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election day, given the legal prohibition on publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close. A veto of the polls that will take effect this Tuesday.
WHAT IS A PREDICTION MARKET?
In the latest update, this Monday June 13, the PP has lost in the last 24 hours one of the two seats that it had added in the previous prediction, although it maintains its comfortable advantage over the Socialists less than a week before the appointment with the polls. On this occasion, the training awarded to this deputy is Forward Andalusia. The current president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juanma Morenowould comfortably win the elections, but would need the support or abstention of the PSOE or the extreme right of Vox to be reinvested.
The popular ones are 10 seats away from the absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament, set at 55 deputies, and would obtain more representation than the sum of the entire left. However, the PP and Adelante Andalucía are the parties that are closest to losing a deputy, while Ciudadanos and the PSOE are the forces that are closest to adding a seat. The second candidate debate, this Monday on Canal Sur, may be decisive in altering or strengthening trends.
The PSOE of John Swords would worsen its 2018 result despite the collapse of citizens and the retreat of the alternative left, divided in these elections into two brands: Through Andalusia Y Forward Andalusia. The orange disaster shoots the other two right, the PP and Vox. The ultras would almost double their representation in the autonomous community for which they burst onto the Spanish political map four years ago.
The PP leads the predictions with 45 seats (today it has 26), one less than in the previous prediction, 10 from the absolute majority and 14 above the PSOE. After a legislature ruling in coalition with cs, Moreno would need the help of the Socialists or Vox to revalidate the presidency of the Board. Swords has promised not to facilitate the investiture of the popular candidate, while the ultras make entering the regional government a condition, as the PP accepted in Castile and Leon.
As for the Socialists, who won the 2018 elections, they would be left with 31 deputies (now they have 33), the same as yesterday, and they would not have the option of forming an alternative government. Yes, in the last elections susana diaz achieved 7 parliamentarians more than the PP, now Swords would stay 14 below Moreno. wow, with Macarena Olona as the head of the poster, a new electoral escalation would be noted and it would reach the 21 seats (today it has 12), the same as 24 hours ago.
The hemicycle would be completed with the two brands to the left of the PSOE and with Ciudadanos. Through Andalusia (coalition that integrates Podemos, IU, Más País, Equo, Alianza Verde and the Andalusian People’s Initiative) is located in 8 seatsthe same as yesterday, while Forward Andalusiawhose candidate is Theresa Rodriguezwould get 3 deputies, one more than in the previous prediction. In 2018, all this electoral space concurred together under the Adelante Andalucía brand and garnered 17 parliamentarians.
As for Ciudadanos, whose candidate is the Vice President of the Board, John Marinwould be left alone 1 deputy (Today he is 21), as in the previous prediction, in his umpteenth regional blow at the polls.
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With this distribution of seats, the two government options most likely go through an alliance between the PP and Vox, but the formula of the coalition executive (53.51%) is already more than 25 points higher than the formula for government alone with external support from the ultras (28.34%). The coalition has grown two points since yesterday, while parliamentary support has also risen, two and a half points in the last 24 hours.
The odds of a absolute majority of the PP in this case, up to 10.51% suffer, three and a half points less than the previous day, while in the remaining 7.64% the rest of the options are integrated, such as the collaboration of the PSOE or Ciudadanos with the P.P.