Who is that leftist candidate who can shake up Colombia?
Gustavo Petro (62), short in stature, glasses, is making his third and, in his own words, last attempt to become president of Colombia this year. After more than half a century of civil war between (far) right-wing politicians and their armed accomplices versus armed left-wing revolutionaries, this ex-guerrillero is on the verge of undermining the status quo.
Left-wing attempts to conduct gun-free politics, have been suppressed in recent decades by far-right paramilitary groups with massacres and other violence. Since 2016, there has been peace on paper in Colombia: then the state concluded an agreement with guerrilla movement Farc. In practice, other armed groups have jumped into the Farc’s hole and large parts of the country are still ravaged by violence.
While Petro is a product of that internal armed conflict – he took his first steps with the ‘urban guerrilla’ M-19 – he has half a life in politics on his resume. After M-19 surrendered its weapons in 1990 and their then presidential candidate Carlos Pizarro was shot dead, Petro made the transition to politics as a parliamentary candidate. He later became a senator and in 2013-2014 he was mayor of the capital Bogotá.
Every time he tries to run for president (first in 2010, then in 2018, and now again), he adopts a more moderate tone. This year he managed to unite virtually all left-wing parties in a coalition, confidently dubbed the Historic Pact. His promise to make Colombia not only a more peaceful, but above all a fairer country has resonated with millions of voters. Especially young people who loudly demanded change in the streets in recent years are expected to vote for Petro en masse.
And who can right-wing Colombians vote for?
There are six candidates besides Petro, in a range from center to far right. Petro’s main challenger is Federico Gutiérrez, former mayor of Medellín. In polls, Petro has been at almost 40 percent for months, Gutiérrez would get about 25 percent of the vote.
In third place, with about 20 percent of the vote, follows right-wing populist Rodolfo Hernández, an eccentric entrepreneur who says he doesn’t have to steal from the Colombians because he already has enough money. Center candidate Ingrid Betancourt, especially a well-known name outside Colombia, does not get much further than 1 percent in the polls.
What is the campaign about?
According to Colombian political scientist Daniela Marlés, an expert in the peace process, Petro dominates the campaign with social themes. “He advocates for rights for groups that have always been marginalized,” she says over the phone. “Many voters also hope that a win for Petro means a second chance for the implementation of the peace agreement.”
Almost six years after the Farc laid down their arms, many rural regions have barely made any progress. The government promised local development – it was to become one of the pillars of peace – but armed groups still reign in large parts of the country while the government is often absent in rural areas.
Earlier this month showed once again how powerful criminal groups are. After Colombia extradited drug lord Dario Antonio Úsuga, aka Otoniel, to the United States, its Clan del Golfo imposed curfews in 11 of its 32 provinces. The drug cartel ruled the streets, but whoever went outside was not sure of his life. And last week, a Paraguayan prosecutor was murdered on a Colombian beach during his honeymoon. Political scientist Marlés: ‘Depending on their political leanings, candidates call for a tougher approach, fighting fire with fire, or for more local development, employment and education.’
The polls leave little room for doubt. If Petro does not obtain an absolute majority on Sunday, he will still easily win in the second round on June 19. Is Colombia sure of a left-wing spring?
While the chances of Gutierrez overtaking him seem slim, Petro still has the most exciting weeks of the campaign ahead of him. Not only must he defeat his opponent, he must also stay alive. In early May, he interrupted his campaign for two days because his team had received information about an assassination plot. Hitmen would be after his life.
An attack on Petro is a realistic scenario, says political scientist Marlés. Hundreds of (left-wing) politicians have been murdered in the past. Numerous activists and local leaders have also been killed in recent years. As a challenger to the established order, Petro poses a threat to many (illegal) economic interests. ‘Unfortunately, the chance of an attack is high.’
According to the political scientist, it is also conceivable that the political and financial elite try to stay in power in other ways. Especially with a narrow victory for Petro, it is obvious that his challengers, with candidate Gutierrez leading the way, will challenge the result. “In that case, Colombia can expect massive street protests again.”