FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE-BOERSE AG) – Stock and raw material markets are reacting much more strongly to the Middle East peace agreement than the bond markets. The returns are stalling. After a mega issue from Nvidia, SpaceX now also wants to tap into the bond market.
June 19, 2026. FRANKFURT (German Stock Exchange). Relaxation on the markets due to the framework agreement between the USA and Iran: The price of oil has fallen significantly, for a barrel of Brent it is below 80 US dollars on Friday afternoon. Concerns about inflation and interest rate increases have noticeably subsided.
However, the decline in yields after the agreement only lasted for a short time. The bottom line is that the yields have hardly moved week-on-week: ten-year federal bonds are currently yielding 2.97 percent again. A week ago it was 2.98 percent. “The easing inflation concerns are offset by the extremely high capital needs of states,” notes Arthur Brunner, who trades bonds for ICF Bank.
“Budget deficits are far too high”
Commerzbank does not expect yields to fall significantly beyond the day. “In the short term, things may continue to decline as the Middle East conflict gradually fades into the background. But over the next six or twelve months, the scope for further declines in yields is limited,” explains chief economist Jörg Krämer. He also believes that the prospect of key interest rate cuts in the second half of next year will be largely offset by the budget deficits in most countries that are far too high.
“Warsh wants to be a credible inflation fighter”
The US Federal Reserve, under its new chairman Kevin Warsh, left key interest rates unchanged on Wednesday this week. “Warsh disappoints interest rate cut hopes,” notes Tim Oechsner of Steubing AG. Warsh made it clear that there was no imminent monetary easing in the short term. In principle, he is considered open to the thesis that inflationary pressure will decrease in the long term due to technological advances and AI. However, his first Fed meeting shows that Warsh wants to be one thing above all as head of the central bank: a credible fighter against inflation. “In doing so, he is moving away from Donald Trump’s interest rate reduction wishes, at least for the time being, and is positioning himself much closer to the traditional Fed line.” The ECB had also not changed its key interest rates the week before.
TPG recovers after price shock
There is a lot going on in government bond trading at Steubing AG in bonds from Italy (IT0005425761) and Spain (ES0000012C12). Things are rather quiet in corporate bond trading. “Hardly anyone wants to position themselves at the moment, there is a lack of impetus,” reports Gregor Daniel from Walter Ludwig Securities Trading Bank. Steubing dealer Oechsner reports good sales for bonds from Volkswagen with a term until 2027 and a current yield of 2.29 percent (XS2374595044) and Nestlé until 2029 – in euros – and 2.70 percent (XS1707075328).
There was a lot of movement this week at the e-commerce company The Platform Group, or TPG for short (NO0013256834). “After critical reports from Manager Magazine about the company, the bond price fell from 77 percent to under 30 percent,” explains Brunner. TPG then announced a bond buyback starting July 2nd. Now the bond is trading at 50 percent again.
Arthur Brunner
Arthur Brunner
Nvidia with mega bond, SpaceX to follow
In addition, the billion-dollar bond issues by US tech companies continue. Now Nvidia has tapped into the bond market for the first time since the beginning of the AI boom. The US dollar bonds pay interest of 4.25 to 5.625 percent for maturities between 2028 and 2056 (US67066GAP90, US67066GAQ73, US67066GAS30, US67066GAV68). Minimum investment amount is 2,000 US dollars.
In addition, after the record IPO last week, SpaceX has now announced a mega bond issue: bonds worth 20 billion US dollars are to be issued, probably as early as next week, as the Financial Times reports.
By Anna-Maria Borse, June 19, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG
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