Good news, everyone. Donald Trump says the Iran war will be over by the end of the week. “Two or three days,” he told reporters on Monday evening, adding that there were no “sticking points” whatsoevernd they are “very, very close to a very, very good, strong, powerful deal.”
The United States and Iran could indeed conclude a peace treaty in the foreseeable future – but there is more than enough reason to be skeptical, if not to simply dismiss the president’s stated optimism.
A pretty good reason for skepticism: A day after Trump called a peace deal “two or three days away,” he announced that Iran had shot down an American helicopter and that the U.S. military would respond accordingly – which it did the following Tuesday.
Trump’s empty promises
It is not the first time that Trump has declared an imminent end to the war, which then simply does not follow. Since the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran in February, he has claimed the conflict will be short. Meanwhile, the war has ravaged the global economy: Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and cut oil flows, and Trump’s approval ratings have plummeted amid the resulting cost-of-living crisis.
Trump clearly wants to put the war behind him, but seems unwilling or unable to do the hard work that would actually require. Instead, he resorts to pitiful appeals on social media – “Israel and Iran must stop ‘shooting’ immediately,” he wrote this week – and claims a deal is just around the corner.
Here is a brief, incomplete history of how Trump stalled the American people, starting almost immediately after the conflict erupted on February 28:
March 1st: “Four to five weeks,” Trump told the New York Times the day after the offensive began. It won’t be “difficult”.
March 5th: “The U.S. military, along with wonderful Israeli partners, is continuing the complete destruction of the enemy, well ahead of schedule and on a scale the people have never seen before,” Trump said in a speech congratulating Inter Miami on winning the Major League Soccer title.
March 9th: “It will be over pretty quickly,” Trump claimed in a speech in Florida. “I think the war is almost over,” he told ABC News that same day.
Victory declared, war continues
March 11th: “Let me tell you: We won. People never like to say it too early, but we won. It was over in the first hour,” Trump said at an event in Kentucky. That same day in Ohio, he tells a reporter that the ongoing hostilities are “a trip to save us from war.”
March 13th: In a Fox News Radio interview, Trump says the war in Iran will end “when I feel it, feel it in my bones.”
March 15: Aboard Air Force One, Trump tells reporters that Iran is “decimated” but he doesn’t want to “call it over.”
March 19: Trump is asked why the Pentagon wants Congress to approve an additional $200 billion for the war. “This is a very volatile world,” Trump said. “You could end this thing in two seconds if you wanted to.”
March 20: Trump lashes out at Pope Leo, telling reporters at the White House he doesn’t want a “ceasefire” and “you don’t make a truce when you literally wipe out the other side.”
March 21st: Trump threatens Iran, writing on Truth Social: “If Iran does not COMPLETELY OPEN the Strait of Hormuz, WITHOUT THREAT, within 48 HOURS of this very moment, the United States of America will strike and destroy its various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE LARGEST FIRST!”
Threats and offers to talk
March 23rd: Two days later, Trump claimed that his administration and Iran had had “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE TALKS ABOUT A FULL AND FINAL SETTLEMENT OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.”
“I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE MINISTRY OF WAR TO POSTPONE ALL MILITARY ATTACKS ON IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A PERIOD OF FIVE DAYS,” he added in his Truth Social post.
March 24th: “This war is won,” Trump declared at the swearing-in ceremony of DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin. “The only one who wants to continue it is the lying press.”
March 29: “I see a deal in Iran, yes,” Trump said aboard Air Force One. “Could be soon.”
March 30: Trump writes on Truth Social that he is having “serious discussions” with Iran and is making progress. “But if for some reason no deal is reached any time soon – which it probably won’t be – and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately ‘opened to traffic’, we will end our pleasant ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely destroying all of their power generation facilities, oil wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalination facilities!) that we have intentionally not ‘touched’ yet.”
“Finish the job”
April 1st: “We’re going to finish the job, and we’re going to get it done very quickly, we’re getting very close,” Trump said in his first national address since the start of the war.
April 4th: After Iran shoots down a US fighter jet, Trump writes on Truth Social that “all hell will fall on” Iran if it doesn’t reach a deal to end the war within the next 48 hours. The deadline of four to five weeks originally set by Trump has long since passed.
April 5th: “Open the damn strait you crazy bastards or you’ll live in hell – LOOK AT IT! Praise be to Allah,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Easter Sunday.
April 6th: At a press conference, Trump commented on the alleged negotiations, telling reporters: “We need a deal that is acceptable to me, and part of that deal is that we want free movement of oil and everything else.” Trump brings up the possible introduction of a toll system for the Strait of Hormuz.
April 7th: Trump threatens the complete annihilation of Iran: “An entire civilization will die tonight and never rise again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. We will find out tonight – one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world.”
Backtracking and new threats
April 8th: After facing widespread backlash over his threats to commit crimes against humanity, Trump wrote on Truth Social that it was a “great day for world peace” and that Iran had finally “had enough.”
“The United States of America will help with the traffic jam in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be a lot of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start rebuilding. We will load up on supplies of all kinds and just ‘hang out’ to make sure everything goes well,” Trump added.
But within hours, Trump again threatened to resume military operations if a “REAL DEAL” was not reached.
April 16: “The war in Iran is going great,” Trump said in a speech in Las Vegas, suggesting the war would soon end.
April 16: Trump says he’s not sure whether the ceasefire with Iran needs to be extended because the country “wants to make a deal.”
Always new deadlines
April 17: “Iran has agreed never to close the Strait of Hormuz again,” Trump writes. “It will no longer be used as a weapon against the world!”
May 1st: Trump says of Iran: “They want to make a deal, but I’m – I’m not happy with it, so we’ll see what happens.”
May 23rd: Trump writes on Truth Social that he has spoken with all leaders involved and “an agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization. … Final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly. Among many other elements of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”
June 5th: “It’s not actually a real war, it’s a military conflict – it’s practice,” Trump said at an agricultural event.
June 7th: The war passes the 100-day mark. Trump emphasizes, as he has done for weeks, that it is still short compared to other wars. “We were in Vietnam for 19 years, and you’re talking to me three months,” Trump told NBC News. “And their leadership, their leadership is gone,” he added, referring to the US killing of Iran’s leadership.
June 8th: “They have each other [mit Angriffen] back and forth, and now through me both have agreed to quit, and we’re in the final stages of what will be a very, very good deal,” Trump says in New York before heading to the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden. That will put an end to the war “in two or three days,” he says.
June 8th: Iran shoots down a US helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. “Nevertheless, the United States must inevitably respond to this attack,” Trump wrote a day later.