Newcomers are also gaining ground
©TM/IMAGO
At the end of the season, the 3rd league recorded a total market value that was more than five percent higher than at the beginning of the season. In the market value update in May, two talents from the second representatives of VfB Stuttgart and Hoffenheim in particular rose: Florian Hellstern (18) and Deniz Zeitler (19). At Hellstern, the upgrade provides an impressive snapshot of the most valuable U19 keepers in the world.
“After Stuttgart loanee Dennis Seimen recently attracted attention at SC Paderborn in the 2nd league and the relegation, Hellstern seems to be following in his footsteps,” says Marktwert admin Sebastian Öttl, summing up the impression that Hellstern left in the goal of the Stuttgart second representation. “The talented keeper is being discussed on loan with several clubs in the 2nd league and with newly promoted Bundesliga Paderborn, where he could replace Dennis Seimen.” After an increase of 1.5 million euros to 4 million euros, Hellstern is the most valuable goalkeeper in the world up to the age of 19.
Like Hellstern, Hoffenheim’s Zeitler also increased by 1.5 million euros to 4 million euros. “In an overall weak second half of the season for Hoffenheim II, Deniz Zeitler led the way with eleven goals,” says market value administrator Johannes Netzer, assessing the season of the other of the two biggest winners in this update. Zeitler scored 14 goals this season for the TSG reserves, which accounts for almost a quarter of the team’s goals all season. “Good evidence of his impressive finishing skills,” says the TM expert. Netzer explains: “With his cold-bloodedness in front of goal, Zeitler should be on the watch list at various clubs, even if Hoffenheim is not expected to give up his talent.”
In addition to Hellstern and Zeitler, Stuttgart’s Noah Darvich and Mirza Catovic, who both increased by one million euros, are also at the top value of 4 million euros in the 3rd league after the update. They all catch up with the previous leader Luis Engelns from TSG, who remains at a valuation of 4 million euros.
“The examples of Seimen, Said El Mala and Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab, all three of whom recently played in the third division and now have market values in the double-digit million range, show how quickly the path to the top can lead to talented third division players,” comments TM admin Netzer. “Players like Hellstern, Darvich, Catovic or Zeitler could be next.”
3rd League: Big jumps among promoted teams
There are also significant jumps in market value for the newcomers VfL Osnabrück and Energie Cottbus. “A total of twelve Osnabrück players will receive an upgrade,” explains Netzer (to the VfL overview). “Ismail Badjie in particular stands out, for whom the price goes up from 325,000 to 800,000 euros. The Osnabrück homegrown player has repeatedly been able to draw attention to himself with quick starts and impressive goals from the second row and is therefore on the list of various higher-class clubs.” Overall, the Osnabrück squad value increased by 1.3 million euros to 8.7 million euros at the end of the season.
About Cottbus’ loan player Lukas Michelbrink (Hertha BSC), colleague Öttl says: “The loan from Hertha to Cottbus is turning out to be a complete success. Michelbrink is very noticeable when playing with the ball and was able to contribute six assists to the promotion. As a result, he even made it into the senior national team of Lithuania.” Midfielder Michelbrink, who moved to Lausitz with a valuation of 250,000 euros, is now ending the season with 600,000 euros. Cottbus recorded an increase in squad value of almost one million euros.
Gindorf, Taz and Schroers outshine the 3rd league
However, the three players with the most scorers cannot be found in the two promoted teams. Lars Gindorf and Mika Schroers from Alemannia Aachen and Berkan Taz from SC Verl set exclamation marks without the teams being able to move up to the higher league. Top scorer and top scorer Gindorf even set a new record in the 3rd league with 28 goals this season. “It is particularly noteworthy that the 24-year loan player from Hannover 96 is not a center forward, but is based in the attacking midfield,” says Netzer. The Saarlander also has eleven assists. Its market value increases from 750,000 to one million euros. Admin Netzer explains: “After this outstanding season, Gindorf is likely to be the focus of a number of second division clubs and also internationally. Staying with the parent club Hannover is anything but certain.”
Gindorf’s offensive partner Schroers has 21 goals and eleven assists. “Aachen has already been able to sign the striker from Bielefeld using a purchase option, but a departure in the summer seems possible given the performances he has shown,” says Netzer. Schroers’ market value climbs from 400,000 to 750,000 euros.
In terms of market value, Verl’s 27-year-old photographer Taz is slightly behind the 24-year-old Schroers – due to his age, as the TM experts explain. “Anyone who has followed the 3rd league in recent years cannot avoid the name Berkan Taz,” says Öttl about the upcoming newcomer from VfL Bochum. “He has been one of the most eye-catching players in the league over the last two years. He has managed to achieve a double-digit number of goals and assists two years in a row. A whopping 17 goals and 21 assists are recorded for this season. The higher-class interest was just the logical consequence. Only his age reduces the transfer potential and prevents a higher appreciation. If Taz were two years younger, he would have a seven-figure market value.”
Upgrades for Mhamdi & Ogbemudia – Biggest minus for Stuttgart’s Diehl
Oualid Mhamdi also looks back on a strong season with SC Verl. The 23-year-old has ten goals and eight assists this season as a right-back. “This performance did not go unnoticed by higher-class clubs: Mhamdi is moving to Bundesliga relegated Heidenheim in the summer and therefore doubling his market value from 450,000 to 900,000 euros,” explains Netzer. “If Mhamdi can confirm his performance in the 2nd league, further significant upgrades await.”
Union Berlin’s 19-year-old loanee Oluwaseun Ogbemudia can also double his market value in defense from SV Waldhof. “He fit in seamlessly in Mannheim and impressed with his good positional play and duel behavior,” says Öttl. “Numerous strikers cut their teeth on him. Although he still has his weaknesses when playing with the ball, he still undoubtedly shows higher-class potential. He doubles his market value to 800,000 euros.”
Justin Diehl, who only worked for Stuttgart’s second agency last season, received the clearest downgrade in the update. “Basically, Diehl was able to show his potential again and again, but various injuries always cause setbacks,” says Netzer. “Its market value is now estimated at 1.2 million euros, which means a devaluation of 600,000 euros.”
This is how transfer market market values work
The transfer market market values are created taking into account various pricing models as well as a strong involvement of the transfer market community, which deals with the values in detailed discussions. The transfer market market values cannot generally be equated with the transfer fees actually paid.
The goal is not to predict a price, but rather an expected value. When determining the market value, both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant to a certain extent. Examples of this are listed here. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (for detailed market value definition).
