The consultant Synopsis Consultants released a public opinion report with an electoral projection towards 2027 in which, in addition to describing general trends, it details specific figures on electoral behavior, management evaluation and social climate. The study, carried out on a national sample of 1,587 cases relieved between April and May of this year Using mixed methodology (online and telephone), it presents a margin of error of +/- 2.4% and structures its results around political, economic and attitudinal variables, as stated by the consulting firm itself in its report.
In terms of management evaluation, the survey indicates that President Javier Milei registers 47.3% approval compared to 50.8% disapproval, with 1.9% non-response. Within this universe, support is especially concentrated among men (52%) and in the 16 to 29-year-old segment (55%), while disapproval escalates to 58% among those over 50 years of age. Synopsis highlights that the “competitiveness threshold” for the ruling party for 2027 is around 45% approval, a figure that today is at the limit of that range.
The interpretive reading that favors the libertarian leader arises from the sum of the following responses: “I like everything about MIlei”, “I don’t like Milei at all, but I don’t see anything better” and “I don’t like Milei at all and I see something better.” In the sum of these items, the Head of State would obtain an interesting approximation to get closer to the approval of a re-election in the first round. A result that contrasts with 49.5% of those surveyed who say “I don’t like Milei at all.”
Regarding economic perception, 62.5% of those surveyed described the current situation as “bad” or “very bad”, while 24.1% considered it “regular” and only 12.7% defined it as “good” or “very good”. However, when asked about future expectations, 41.8% responded that the economy will be better in a year, compared to 38.6% who believe it will get worse and 19.6% who anticipate it will remain the same. This differential between negative present and divided expectations is pointed out by the consulting firm as a key factor in the stability of official support.
Regarding voting intention, the report proposes a hypothetical first round scenario in which the libertarian space reaches 34.7%, Peronism in its different aspects adds up to 28.9%, while an armed non-Peronist opposition – fragmented – gathers 18.3%. 11.5% declare themselves undecided and 6.6% express their intention to vote blank or null. Synopsis highlights that the ruling party maintains a “consolidated floor” close to 30%, with growth potential depending on economic developments.
But, when analyzing the second round, the study shows that in a possible runoff the ruling party would reach 45.2% compared to 42.8% for a unified opposition, with 12% undecided. In this scenario, the behavior of the independent electorate is decisive: within that segment, 36% lean towards opposition options, 31% towards the ruling party and 33% remain undefined.
In relation to political identification, 39.4% of those surveyed claim not to feel represented by any space, 27.6% identify with the libertarian ruling party, 22.1% with Peronism and 10.9% with other forces. This data reinforces, according to Synopsis, the centrality of the independent vote as a decisive variable in future elections.
The report also measures the demand for change: 68.2% of those consulted consider that “the country needs profound changes”, compared to 21.7% who prefer to “maintain some things and change others” and only 7.9% who choose to “maintain the current course without major modifications.” This figure, which remains high even after the change of government in 2023, is interpreted as a structural condition for all political forces.
In terms of leadership, Javier Milei heads the image ranking with a 48.5% positive rating and a 49.9% negative rating. Among the opposition leaders, none of them have a positive image of more than 40%, which, according to the consultancy, shows a “fragmentation of the opposition leadership.” Furthermore, the level of knowledge of emerging figures does not exceed 60%, which limits their ability to consolidate themselves as competitive alternatives.
Finally, the study concludes that the electoral scenario towards 2027 remains open and highly dependent on the evolution of economic and political variables. “The stability of the official support is tied to the expectation of economic improvement, while the opposition faces the challenge of building leadership and unity,” summarizes the Synopsis Consultores report, which warns of a dynamic marked by the volatility of the electorate and the persistence of high levels of uncertainty.
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