THECovid should have taught us something. And instead, according to theWorld Health Organizationthe world today would be more fragile than ten years old does in the face of the risk of new pandemics. The new report raises the alarm Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB)an independent body established by WHO and the World Bank, which in the document A World on the Edge: Priorities for a Pandemic Resilient Future it describes a planet that is more exposed, more unequal and less ready to react to future health emergencies. The central point is clear: the pandemics are no longer considered exceptional eventsbut increasingly probable scenarios in a world marked by climate change, extreme urbanization, global mobility, wars and mistrust in institutions.
Is the world no longer safe?
“Ten years after the Ebola epidemic and six years after Covid-19, the evidence is clear: the world is no safer than pandemics,” the Board’s experts write. According to the report, investments made after Covid would not have been enough to offset the increase in global risk factors. On the one hand I am improved surveillance systems, diagnostics and response capabilities; on the other, however, they are the variables that favor the spread of epidemics have increased: climate crisis, deforestation, zoonoses, armed conflicts, geopolitical instability and growing international fragmentation. The result is an increasingly fragile balance.
Pandemics are becoming more frequent
One of the most worrying data concerns the frequency of global health events. In 2024, the WHO recorded almost double the number of emergencies compared to 2015. It is not just Covid or mpox (monkeypox). The report recalls the great health crises of recent years – Ebola, Zika, Covid-19, monkeypox – underlining how the pandemic risk is moving “in the wrong direction”. Above all, the increasingly unstable relationship between humans, the environment and animals weighs heavily. In fact, deforestation, climate change and urban expansion increase contact with pathogens previously confined to other ecosystems.
The invisible cost of pandemics
Pandemics don’t just leave deaths or hospitalizations. They leave behind more fragile societies. During Ebola, the GDP of the affected countries decreased by 5.1%. With Covid, the global decline was 2.9%, accompanied by an increase in public debt, inflation and the collapse of international investments. But the report insists above all on the indirect and less visible effects: interruption of pediatric vaccinations, delays in oncological treatments, reduced access to prevention and worsening of mental health. According to the GPMB, between a third and half of survivors of major epidemics have developed persistent psychological disorders. A collective wound that has never really closed.
Women and children always pay the highest price
As already happened during Covid, future pandemics also risk hitting the most vulnerable categories above all. The report highlights that women, children, precarious workers and socially fragile groups have suffered the heaviest consequences of recent major health crises.
During Ebola, approximately 50% of children remained out of school in the affected areas. With Covid, school closures affected 80% of the world’s students. Poverty, inequality and early marriage have also increased. According to experts, pandemics leave behind “poorer, more unequal and more divided” societies.
The crisis of trust
Then there is another element that deeply worries experts: mistrust. Distrust of governments, scientific institutions, international organizations and health systems. A phenomenon amplified by political polarization, disinformation and social media. According to the report, this crisis of trust represents one of the main threats to today’s pandemic preparednessthat is, to ability to prepare for future emergencies.
Because without trust – experts explain – even the best healthcare strategies risk failing.
Vaccines, treatments and new inequalities
The document also dedicates a very harsh passage to the issue of global access to vaccines and treatments. According to the GPMB, during the latest epidemics the principle of health equity has progressively weakened. Vaccines against mpox, for example, arrived in the poorest countries almost two years after the start of the epidemic. The Board speaks openly of “equity fatigue”, sort of political and financial tiredness towards the idea of guaranteeing accessible care for all.
The inequalities seen during Covid, experts explain, were not an accident, but the sign of a structural problem in global governance.
The positive role of artificial intelligence
Among the new frontiers cited in the report there is also artificial intelligence. According to the GPMB, Advanced digital tools could improve the monitoring of infectious threats And accelerate health responsesAnd. But without clear rules and ethical governance, the risk is that new technologies will further increase inequalities.
“The next pandemic is not a remote possibility”
The final message of the report is clear: the world will not return to the pre-pandemic situation. Climate change, geopolitical instability, population growth and global mobility will continue to increase the risk of new pandemics. “Preparedness is not just a technical challenge: it is a test of political leadership,” said GPMB co-chair Joy Phumaphi. For experts, the next pandemic is not a theoretical possibility. It’s a concrete scenario. And the real risk is arriving there unprepared once again.
