This year’s agricultural campaign is projected to reach a record 160 million tons. ANDThat is what is manifested with endless queues at the loading ports of Paraná and that at the Rosario accesses there were 6,000 trucks with peaks of 14,000 units. According to the latest report from the Ministry of Agriculturesoybeans project a harvest of 49 million tons (-4.1% than the previous cycle). But the planted area fell 8.3%, 16.5 million hectares, compared to the last season.
The incremental contribution of net exports of grains and derivatives would be of the order of US$2,000 million compared to 2025 and foreign sales of the agro-industrial complex would reach US$39,300 million in 2026.according to estimates by the chief researcher of IERAL Juan Manuel Garzón.
At the same time, the surplus of the energy trade balance continues to rise sharply. In 2026 it could reach 12.5/13.0 billion dollars, coming from 7.8 billion in 2025, due to the mix of greater exportable production and prices derived from the “Hormuz effect.”
The chief economist of the IERAL, Jorge Vasconcelospoints out that the abundance of dollars originating in foreign trade will continue to make its contribution, “in a context in which the “cyclical trend” of imports has remained in the range of US$6,100 to US$6,200 million per month for a year, as a result of the ‘levelling’ of the level of activity”.
In the first quarter of 2026, the latest report from Invecq It stands out that foreign trade prices showed similar year-on-year variations with those of exports growing 3.6% year-on-year and those of imports 3.7% year-on-year. “This resulted in practically stable terms of trade: in quantities, a divergent dynamic was observed: exports increased 12.8% year-on-year, while imports fell 10.6% year-on-year.”he comments.
This factor, together with the excellent projections of the other two “engines” of economic activity, mining investments and the expansion of oil and gas production, especially in the Vaca Muerta account, are the basis of the announcements of a dollar with a ceiling and the danger of falling into the “Dutch disease”, which basically supposes a supplantation of activities intended for domestic consumption by those for export. Beyond Excel, what is useful for the decisions that investors in the sector must make each year is whether the accounts should be made with a dollar like the current one or it is just an exchange bubble that will soon burst to return to the old cyclical tradition. The question is not dialectical, it means a concrete input to confront the worst plague that the entire sector faces today: the increase in costs that undermines, like an uncontrollable “Pacman”, the profitability of the producer.
Lurking costs. Of course, the main item is tax, directly such as real estate, municipal road taxes, check tax and, above all, withholdings that punish areas outside the core zone hardest. For example, in the case of soybeans, which showed a result. Curiously, soybeans are the ones that pay the least export duties, which despite the reduction that occurred last year continues to absorb a good part of the profitability margin.
During the last 12 months (April 2025 — March 2026), The agricultural tax burden averaged 55% in the core zone and 76% in the extra-Pampean zone. “In other words, and returning to the initial question, the treasury absorbed 55% and 76% of the economic surplus generated by an agricultural hectare in each of these areas, respectively.”, according to calculations by Juan Manuel Garzón and Franco Artusso, also from IERAL.
On the other hand, the Transportation Cost Index (ICT), prepared by the Argentine Federation of Freight Motor Transport Business Entities (FADEEAC) and audited by the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the University of Buenos Aires, registered an increase of 2.42% in April, marking a slowdown compared to the 10.15% in March, when the indicator had reached its highest rise in more than two years. However, andThe accumulated impact is significant: in the first quarter of 2026 the ICT accumulated 17.8%, exceeding the 10.3% registered in the same period of 2025, 46.4% year-on-yearwhich reflects the persistence of structural pressures on the sector’s costs.
Finally, the other “villain” of this film is the inflationary spiral of agrochemicals. With Brent oil rising 18% weekly and exceeding US$107 a barrel, the fertilizer market continues to have restricted supply. The economist Roman Danteprofessor at the Center for Agribusiness and Food of the Austral University, It also points out that Russia extended its fertilizer export quotas, while India went out to buy urea, paying between US$935 and 959 per ton, when the previous price ranged between US$508 and US$512. Finally, Romano emphasizes that various analysts and climate agencies warn about the arrival of an intense El Niño event for the second half of the year. “It is negative for production in Australia and northern Brazil, in the markets we follow, and positive for the Argentine core area and southern Brazil,” he explains.
What’s coming In this positioning, according to the agribusiness consulting firm’s projections Zorraquín + Menesesglobal grain fundamentals continue to show, in general terms, a well-supplied market; That is, the world does not face an agricultural supply problem today. Therefore, even though the geopolitical context can generate price recoveries, it does not necessarily imply a structural change in trend, he estimates. “In other words: commodities could rise, but if costs do so at a similar—or even greater—speed, the improvement in profitability may end up being very limited. This point is beginning to be central in many agricultural companies, where the focus is no longer solely on capturing price but on defending margin.”, he concludes.
Finally, the IAE Economics professor Eduardo Fracchiaobserves that, going forward, “The most likely scenario – with an estimated probability of 60% – is the continuity of monthly inflation in the range of 2% to 2.5%, accompanied by weak or slightly declining economic activity, with the exception of some dynamic sectors that, however, generate little employment.. Therefore, an optimistic scenario, with a probability of 20%, assumes the appearance of “green shoots”, greater economic dynamism and stabilization accompanied by institutional improvements. On the other hand, the scenario that he considers “adverse” (also with a 20% probability) contemplates a deeper social deterioration, with increased unemployment and higher inflation, although still within controllable levels. “In short, Argentina faces a dynamic of long-term structural change; understanding this process and acting accordingly is key”ends.
The constant and increasing burden of costs eating into the sector’s margin will come more from efficiencies in the value chain than from a hypothetical alteration of the delicate balances in the external sector.
