Spain and Germany in a duel
©IMAGO
Even if the gap to Spain in the race for an additional place in the Champions League has increased again after the first leg defeats of FC Bayern and SC Freiburg in the European Cup semi-finals, everything is still possible for the Bundesliga. Even if the last two German representatives have to give up in the semi-finals, another ticket for the premier class would theoretically be possible.
What exactly is it about? Every season, UEFA awards two additional starting places in the Champions League to the two countries whose clubs score best in the European Cup. The UEFA ranking is calculated from the performances of all participating teams. With a win – regardless of the competition – a club collects two points, with a draw one. This number is halved in the qualification and playoffs. From the league phase onwards, bonus points are awarded for certain placements and for reaching further rounds. A nation’s total points are divided by the number of clubs from that country represented in the European Cup. This is how the UEFA coefficient is calculated.
The undisputed leader this season is once again England with 27.125 points. The Premier League has already secured one of the coveted two premier class tickets. Behind them, Spain is currently ahead of Germany (21,214) with 21,781 points. But the gap is just 0.567 points. The Bundesliga has a small advantage in duels: one less starter. Every success is worth a little more for Germany than for Spain. With a win, the German points account increases by 0.285, the Spanish only by 0.25; for a draw it is 0.142 compared to 0.125.
Although the competitions are entering the home stretch, there are still many scenarios that could occur. If Bayern and Freiburg win their semi-final second leg, reach the final and win there, they could at best score 10.5 points for Germany including bonuses, i.e. increase the UEFA coefficient by 1.5 (22.714). For Atlético Madrid and Rayo Vallecano there are only ten points, i.e. a maximum of 1.25 for Spain (23,031). However, it is not possible for both countries to reach their maximum, as the Munich and Colchoneros would meet in the premier class final.
It is also clear: If Atlético and Rayo still get 7.5 points, Spain will be uncatchable for Germany. So the Madrilenians win the semi-final second leg (2 points) and move into the Champions League final (1.5), where they lose to Bayern, and the Franjirrojos win the Conference League title with two wins (4 + 0.5), even the full number of points including the title for Bayern and Freiburg would not be enough for the additional premier class place in the UEFA ranking. As winners of the Europa League, the people from Breisgau would at least have secured their ticket. If Freiburg were to qualify for the Conference League via the Bundesliga, this place would be lost. If the sports club were to miss seventh place, the number of European Cup participants would increase to eight.
Fifth Champions League place possible for Bundesliga despite semi-final exit
The close constellation between Germany and Spain also ensures that even if the finals are missed, the additional premier class place could still be won. If Atlético and Rayo were eliminated with two defeats, Bayern and Freiburg won and equalized the results but also lost out on penalties, Germany would still collect four points. Then the UEFA coefficient would rise to 21.785 and the Bundesliga would be four thousandths ahead of LaLiga (21.781). It would be just as close in the scenario if Freiburg reached the final with a win and lost there (2+1 points), but Bayern missed out with a draw (1).
There are still a lot of arithmetic games surrounding the showdown, but there will be more clarity on Tuesday evening after Atlético’s premier class second leg at Arsenal FC. If coach Diego Simeone’s team were eliminated with a defeat, Rayo could only collect a maximum of 4.5 points in the Conference League (22,343). Then Germany would only need eight of the maximum 10.5 possible points (22,357). Bayern and Freiburg would then have to reach the final, but only one would have to win the title after 120 minutes at the latest.
One thing is clear: it would be immensely important for Germany that at least one or ideally both Spanish clubs bow out in the semi-finals; especially Atlético, as the bonus for the final in the Champions League is 1.5 instead of 0.5 as in the Conference League. On the other hand, it is also clear: If Atlético and Rayo confidently move into the final with two wins and get six points (22,531), Bayern and Freiburg have to go to the final, secure one title after extra time at the latest and the other at least go to penalties (22,571) – or simply get the maximum score.
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