The markets have recovered noticeably after the turbulence in the Middle East. Nevertheless, analysts still see risks and recommend a selective look at mining stocks.
• MSCI World Metals & Mining Index reduces losses, overall market already recovered
• Many mining stocks overvalued, cycle for metals such as copper and zinc well advanced
• Aluminum and coal benefit from supply bottlenecks, gold stabilizes after correction
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has shaken up commodity markets and brought back volatility in mining stocks. But according to Investing.com, the experts at Bernstein give the cautious all-clear: If their assessment is correct, the stocks have already passed the zenith of market distortions.
A look at the price tables supports this thesis. The MSCI World Metals & Mining Index has almost digested its recent phase of weakness and is now only around seven percent below its pre-crisis level. For comparison: The broader MSCI World Index has already completely made up for its losses (as of April 27, 2026).
Valuation hurdles and cycle risks
Despite the recovery, analysts urge caution. The problem: Many mining stocks are no longer a bargain. Measured against the price-earnings ratios of the last five years, a number of stocks are currently trading above their historical average. There is also the cyclical component. For important industrial metals such as copper and zinc, there are many indications that we are already in a late market phase. Investors must therefore be selective. However, there are exceptions: According to Bernstein, industry giants such as Newmont and Barrick are still trading below their long-term average valuations.
Aluminum: The Gulf region as a bottleneck
Fundamentally, the situation remains tense, which is primarily due to massive supply disruptions. Particular attention is paid to the aluminum sector. The Gulf region contributes around 9 percent of global production and is logistically directly influenced by the conflict. The receipt followed promptly: Since the crisis began, the price of aluminum has shot up by around 14 percent (as of April 27, 2026). Since production downtimes and reduced capacities are artificially reducing supply, Bernstein expects prices to remain high in the medium term. Producers with a strong focus on the aluminum business are likely to benefit from this in particular.
Energy switch: Coal benefits from LNG bottlenecks
Interesting shifts are emerging in the energy sector. Because liquefied natural gas (LNG) is becoming scarce due to logistical hurdles, coal is experiencing an unexpected renaissance. Companies that are strategically well positioned here have more leverage. According to Bernstein, the market does not yet fully reflect this potential in share prices.
Gold: bottoming out after correction
The “safe haven” gold provides a surprising picture. Despite the geopolitical tensions, the price has recently fallen under the wheels, primarily due to the headwind from rising real yields as a result of higher inflation expectations. However, after a painful pullback from more than $5,400 in January to around $4,400 an ounce in March, the price now appears to have bottomed out.
Although a renewed escalation could put further pressure on prices in the short term, structural demand remains robust – not least because central banks continue to massively diversify their reserves. For the current year 2026, the forecast has been lowered slightly to $4,818, but the long-term outlook remains bullish: Bernstein believes prices of up to $6,100 are possible by 2030.
The immediate shocks appear to have been digested for now, but the environment remains challenging. Between the recovery rally and cyclical risks, the selection of individual stocks will likely determine investment success in the mining sector in the future.
Julia Walter, editorial team at finanzen.net
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