Rob Jetten has not yet experienced many international crises and European summits as Prime Minister, but there are enough to draw conclusions. “Europe sits far too much on the sidelines,” Jetten sighed to the press on Friday morning in Nicosia, the location of Jetten’s second EU summit.
The European prime ministers and presidents in the Nicosia conference center do not notice much of the Mediterranean sun shining over the Cypriot capital. Even more so from the troubled outside world. For two days it’s about little else. “We see that the Americans, the Israelis and a whole lot of countries in the Middle East are at loggerheads with each other,” Jetten notes. “And Europe makes far too little of a difference.”
At first glance, Europe actually claimed a place on the world stage this week. Cyprus, which holds the rotating EU presidency until the summer, had expanded its guest list for the occasion to include neighboring Middle Eastern leaders, including Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. On Thursday evening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had already flown in to express his gratitude for the EU loan of 90 billion euros, which was released this week after a lengthy Hungarian blockade.
The reality, as the oft-repeated cliché goes, is that the EU right now a payer but not a player is
And the moment is upon us. Like the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Iran war is confronting Europe with major consequences, in the form of higher energy prices and political fear of high numbers of migrants. Diplomats from the EU also saw how Zelensky achieved success in recent weeks on a lightning tour in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Syria.
Also read
“You don’t have the cards right now,” Zelensky was told by Trump. But in the Middle East it now appears: Ukraine does have cards
“Zelensky is now seizing the opportunity to strengthen ties with the Middle East,” one of them said on Friday. “Then why not us?”
Yes, why not?
Syria also has wishes
The same day it became clear how difficult Europe finds it to make choices. While the European and Middle Eastern leaders are sitting together at the table, it is leaked via Reuters that the Americans want to kick Spain out of NATO because of the rebellious actions of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. He banned American fighter planes from using Spanish bases.
Sánchez has publicly received support, including from Berlin and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Jetten also says it: Spain is part of it. But behind the scenes there is mainly frustration about the Spanish government, which would make things difficult for the other NATO countries in Europe.
Be principled, or pragmatic? The same question arises when the Middle East joins in. Europeans have long seen it as a source of frustration that their interlocutors do not participate in the sanctions aimed at putting the Kremlin in a tight spot. In the Middle East there is annoyance that the EU is allowing Israel to have its way in the Palestinian territories and the rest of the region.
It is one of the messages with which Syrian President Al-Sharaa came to Cyprus. Syria, like its neighbors, wants Europe “to take responsibility against Israeli aggression in our areas,” he said at a press conference on Friday afternoon.
Yes, says Al-Sharaa, he is grateful for the invitation. But the president does not want to present himself as the underlying party alongside the EU. “We know that Europe needs Syria just as much as Syria needs Europe.” Next to him on the podium, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen doesn’t move a muscle.
Also read
Israel escalates, Europe debates. The EU remains divided on concrete steps
Transferring sovereignty
Geopolitics has always been difficult for Europe. The union was historically formed to prevent mutual quarrels from turning into clashes of arms, and later to promote mutual trade: the work of treaties, of diplomacy. Developing a position of power towards the outside world, and therefore handing over national sovereignty, feels uncomfortable for many.
This hesitation runs deep. It is telling that in practice the US leaves many policies to the 50 states, with two exceptions: defense and foreign policy. In Europe the opposite applies. Almost all national policy areas are deeply intertwined with European rules, but defense and foreign policy are considered purely national affairs.
Geopolitics is based on raw power and hard choices. The reality, as the oft-repeated cliché goes in Brussels, is that the EU is at this moment a payer but not a player is. The EU is the largest financial supporter for Ukraine and the largest donor for the Palestinian territories. Yet that flow of money only translates poorly into influence.
That has changed somewhat in recent years. Money is jointly borrowed for defense investments, defense is discussed. But Von der Leyen is not getting any support for her proposal to do away with the unanimity requirement that applies to most important foreign policy decisions. That unanimity requirement made notorious veto clients, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, powerful. But no one wants to see their own veto disappear.
What most countries do not want to do on their own, the chaos from the White House may make possible: more cooperation
Foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas is also running into such a wall. Kallas likes to talk about the EU’s self-defense clause, the so-called Article 42.7, in which countries agree to come to each other’s aid in the event of an attack. The clause already exists and Cyprus, which was recently hit by an Iranian drone, would like to develop the principle. But hardly anyone else sees such concrete obligations.
So most discussions continue to revolve around themselves. The only thing that seems to be able to help against this, the diplomats who do want to work there hope, is the Trump factor. What most countries do not want to do on their own, the chaos from the White House may make possible: more cooperation and new alliances.
Jetten also alluded to this. “That was a very clear message from the Gulf countries: our allies are less predictable than we thought,” the prime minister said after the talks. “So we, as Europe and the Middle East, are also more dependent on each other.”
