The gold market has had turbulent weeks: the precious metal has corrected drastically since its record high in January. However, one analyst sees opportunities.
• Gold price is well away from record high
• Bargain: WisdomTree analyst sees strong buying opportunity
• Jump ahead to $6,000?
Gold price collapses after record high
The stock market year 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most turbulent in the history of the precious metal. After gold rushed from one record high to the next in January, driven by the escalation in the Middle East, investors experienced a drastic trend reversal as the year progressed. At the beginning of the year, the price of the precious metal reached a new all-time high of $5,416.4 per troy ounce. However, the price of gold has now fallen significantly and is a full 13.5 percent below its record high. The most recent price per troy ounce was 4,771.96 US dollars.
Why gold is currently a “bargain”.
Gold’s sharp correction since its record high in January has unsettled many investors, but WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah sees the decline as a rare “ultimate buying opportunity.” In an interview with Kitco News, the expert emphasized that the massive sell-off was almost completely disconnected from economic realities.
According to Shah’s analytical model, only about $200 of the loss can be explained by classic factors such as rising bond yields, a strong US dollar or speculative position changes. The remaining, much larger part of the slump is just “inflated overselling.” In times of extreme market volatility, this arises primarily from forced liquidations: investors do not sell gold because of a lack of trust, but rather to quickly obtain liquidity and offset losses in other portfolio areas.
Shah reminds us that, historically, during major geopolitical crises, gold often only gives in briefly before setting off on a massive countermovement and reaching new highs. “Gold is currently available at bargain prices… it really looks like a good buying opportunity,” said Shah. For investors who have been waiting, he says the latest correction could be just the moment they’ve been waiting for: “For years people have been asking me, ‘I like gold, but I’m looking for a time to get in.’ … This is probably exactly what they’ve been waiting for,” he said. “If you don’t buy now, you never will in your life.”
Interest rate policy, geopolitical risks and the $6,000 scenario
A key reason for the current weakness lies in the market’s expectations of the central banks – but Shah sees a mistake here. “I am very skeptical that central banks would raise interest rates in this environment,” he explains in the interview. Since current inflation is primarily driven by supply-side shocks (such as energy shortages), too tough a monetary policy would inevitably lead to a severe recession. Instead, he assumes that monetary authorities will adopt a wait-and-see attitude and let inflationary pressure take effect – an environment that fundamentally supports the price of gold.
The analyst is therefore extremely optimistic for the end of the year: While his base scenario envisages a gold price of around 5,020 US dollars, he even considers the 6,000 US dollar mark to be absolutely realistic if geopolitical tensions further escalate. “Geopolitical risks are not going away, and when investors realize that, gold prices will rise,” he said. “Given the new geopolitical risks, I wouldn’t rule out $6,000.”
Beyond the precious metal, he sees the entire commodities sector in a strong phase as the global economy has entered a late cycle with high inflation risks and structural underinvestment in supply. Shah therefore recommends that investors have a robust raw material quota of 15 to 20 percent in the overall portfolio, a fifth of which should flow into physical precious metals in order to benefit from the looming shortage and the ongoing crisis dynamics.
Evelyn Schmal, editorial team at finanzen.net
This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. finanzen.net GmbH excludes any claims for recourse.
