Roda JC can no longer miss a place in the play-offs for promotion to the Eredivisie. But perhaps there is even direct promotion in the pipeline for the Kerkrades.
Because Roda does need an ultimate sprint and is dependent on the competition, but a place in the top two is certainly possible for the team from Kerkrade. “If we don’t talk about it now, you have a sign in front of your face,” defender Pele van Anholt also says. These are the prospects for Roda:
The ranking
The most complicating factor is the current ranking. Place two is the highest attainable, because the chance that leader Emmen (71 points) will be overtaken by anyone at all is nil. Volendam is second with 65 points and is virtually also on direct promotion. Excelsior (62 points) falls just outside the boat with three points less, FC Eindhoven (61 points) has four points less and Roda is six points away from direct promotion with 59 points. ADO Den Haag can also reach that number when it wins its make-up game against Jong PSV.
There are still five rounds to play. “And then six points is a lot”, Roda coach Jurgen Streppel realizes. “But we have to make it our goal. You’re getting closer and closer, and that’s the way it is.” Given the small differences between the teams behind Emmen, it is likely that the battle will only be decided on the final day of the competition. With regard to the goal difference – which is decisive in case of an equal number of points – Roda (+27) is in relatively good shape compared to Volendam (+24), Excelsior (+28), Eindhoven (+24) and ADO (+23).
The form
The ranking gives an idea of the proportions over the entire season. But how have those teams fared in recent weeks? Roda has only lost one of her last 17 league matches and has won 4 of her last 5 matches, although these always involved teams from the right-hand row. Anyway, Roda has picked up a lot of points in recent weeks – and months. That cannot be said of the unapproachable Volendam for a long time: that team did not win one of the last six matches and went down hard against competitors Emmen (4-1) and Excelsior (2-5). Volendam has, in football terms, ‘lost it’.
Excelsior shows the opposite picture: it has won six of its last eight matches. Eindhoven – just like Roda – only lost once in 2022 and often won, but the last three matches were difficult. ADO is downright mixed with two wins, two draws and two wins in the last six rounds. All in all, Excelsior and Roda are entering the final of the competition in the best form. “We have won the last games with small margins, but we have built up a nice series,” says Van Anholt. “Looking at the other teams, we’re doing well.”
The selection
Roda has a smaller budget than the competition, excluding Eindhoven. And that translates into the player group: looking at the number of players that can be drafted without the qualitative decline being great, it is narrower than with the rest. Although it must be said that Roda has grown both qualitatively and quantitatively. In recent weeks, players such as Davy van den Berg, Daryl Werker, Robert Klaasen and Van Anholt have proven that there is indeed something to choose from for coach Streppel in his starting line-up. “We are getting broader and fitter,” says Streppel, who has been eyeing these developments all season.
Nevertheless, Volendam, but also Excelsior and ADO can fall back on a broader group. By KKD standards it is a luxury to be able to pass players like Francesco Antonucci (Volendam), Couhaib Driouech (Excelsior) and Samy Bourard (ADO). Especially now, at the end of the season, injuries are lurking and good alternatives are crucial. Roda has one of the best starting teams in the competition, but is fragile in width. “We know what to expect from each other since the start of the competition”, left back Amir Absalem points to the ‘hard core’ with which Roda plays. “That also gives a certain confidence.”
The pressure
“You see that competitors perform less because of the pressure”, Streppel recently stated. And although the phenomenon of ‘pressure’ is barely measurable, those words make sense. The pressure on Volendam to promote is great, on the one hand because they have invested heavily with the aim of promoting this year, and on the other hand because Wim Jonk’s team has been on course for direct promotion all season. Giving it away now would be an embarrassment for Volendam. Emmen, who also had to promote as a relegant with a very expensive group of players, handles that pressure better.
At co-degradant ADO, the ambitions have been tempered by all kinds of internal worries. At Excelsior, this season has been pointed to as a promotion year, so there is also pressure to make that happen. Roda has designated next season as the promotion year in its three-year plan; this year, a place in the top five was aimed at and the pressure is lower, although it is highly questionable what that will be like when direct promotion really comes close. And Eindhoven? No one was counting on promotion there and it is important for coach Rob Penders not to let the pressure get a grip on his group.
The program
Ailing Volendam still has a treacherous program: two tail teams, but also confrontations with three teams from the top eight: De Graafschap, Jong Ajax and – on the final day – competitor FC Eindhoven. In a tough competition slot, the Eindhoven players also meet period leader Almere City, talent factory Jong PSV and Emmen, who had already been promoted by that time. The people of Eindhoven do play all those duels in their own stadium. ADO also plays against those last three teams and will compete against three ‘played out’ teams from the right-hand row.
On paper, Roda and Excelsior have the most favorable schedule. Roda will have to deal with the dangerous Jong Ajax on Friday and later visit Emmen, which may then be celebrating her promotion. But otherwise, Roda should have no problems with Helmond and Telstar (home) and Den Bosch (away), all teams that are in the bottom seven in the ranking. Excelsior only plays against clubs that are ninth or lower. The two remaining matches are on Limburg soil, at MVV and VVV-Venlo. Roda must therefore hope for some help from the provincial authorities.
Recent history
And Roda still has something to cling to. “A Go Ahead scenario, why not?” asks midfielder Klaasen. “They were not much worse off. And you saw what can happen on the final day. Maybe we can take advantage of that.” Klaasen refers to Go Ahead Eagles, which was eight points away from direct promotion with five games to go last season; two points more than Roda at the moment. The then number two De Graafschap struggled and Go Ahead took immediate promotion in the very last round of play.
Roda is not in control of the rivalry’s struggles, their own performances all the more. To start with this Friday evening in Kerkrade, with 12,500 spectators in the stands, against Jong Ajax. Just like NAC Breda – VVV-Venlo and MVV – Jong FC Utrecht, this important confrontation can be followed live from 20:00 on L1 Radio.